View Full Version : The curse of the clear cut chance
I've analysed my last three seasons and have found that I'm twice as likely to hit the woodwork as I am to score from CCC's.
Poor composure, players, finishing, moral...any number of things.
The point is that it's been a range of players - I'm also statistically twice as likely to hit the woodwork in comparison to my opponents generally.
Latest game 4 CCCs 2 hit the woodwork 1 scored from!
Quick update on hitting the woodwork so far 12 times in 191 shots for me NONE for my opponents in 105 shots.
Seems like teams are much more likely to score a 35 yarder than a CCC but according to fanbois on here. CCC has no relation on the quality of the chance!
On the general aspect of hitting the woodwork only ONE opposing team has hit the woodwork so the latest stats are 230 shots times woodwork hit 15 (6.52%) opposition 160 shots 3 hit woodwork (1.87%).
what patch do you play on?
The latest one.
It's just pure luck, I'm afraid, what is happening to you. The game isn't rigged, and I wanted to prove that so I took my last two seasons of data.
In 2016/17, I had 714 shots and hit the woodwork 30 times, while the opposition hit the woodwork 29 times from 522 shots.
In 2017/18, I had 958 shots and hit the woodwork 44 times, while the opposition hit the woodwork 27 times from 593 shots.
So, as you can see I was marginally unluckier in 2017/18 but if anything I have been favoured by the woodwork. I am a strong competitor in the league and I finished second of twelve teams in both years of this data.
Overall, I hit the woodwork 74 times from 1672 shots at a percentage of 4.42%. The opposition hit the woodwork 56 times from 1115 shots at a percentage of 5.02%, meaning that I was the luckier team.
In addition, you can't really look into clear cut chances particularly well but in 2016/17 I had 112 CCCs and scored 113 goals, and ironically in 2017/18 I had 129 CCCs and scored 130 goals.
So, if you were to put this into a statistic, I score 99.17% of my clear cut chances. Obviously this isn't true; the majority of my goals have come from outside of CCCs, but I have no idea how you actually analysed yours. Did you watch every shot to see if it was a clear cut chance and then the result of the shot? That would've taken an extremely long time if you actually did, but that's the only possible way of analysing the correct percentage of how many goals you actually score from CCCs.
That's what I did I've seen every shot that resulted in a CCC.
In overall terms though one team has hit the woodwork against me and that was Barcelona in two Spainish Cup ties - I'm in the 3rd tier in Spain.
Can't add anything to the woodwork figures, but remember that top strikers IRL only score about 25% of their chances!
Sorry I sort of digressed from the opening topic and got onto general woodwork hitting.
Do your strikers have shot placing PPMs maybe and thus are more likely to aim for the sides of goal?
Just checked - and no they don't. A lot of the shots that hit the bar are from free kicks.
Well... I will be happy if my free kicks actually get anywhere near the goal. 10 seasons in and I think I scored a grand total of 5 direct free kicks... yea..
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