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World Cup 2010! How accurate is the FM database? (some sort of CA spoilers)


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Hi.

Just making this thread for fun, to see how good the CA given to the players in the fm 2010 10.3 database is reflecting the results in the world cup. I will try to update after every game.

Game 1:

South Africa vs Mexico:

Average CA of the 13 players that entered the pitch for South Africa this match: 125,8

Average CA of the 14 players that entered the pitch for Mexico: 135,3

According to the db it should be a victory for Mexico. Real life result 1-1 draw.

Real world vs Database: 1-0.

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Hi.

Just making this thread for fun, to see how good the CA given to the players in the fm 2010 10.3 database is reflecting the results in the world cup. I will try to update after every game.

Game 1:

South Africa vs Mexico:

Average CA of the 13 players that entered the pitch for South Africa this match: 125,8

Average CA of the 14 players that entered the pitch for Mexico: 135,3

According to the db it should be a victory for Mexico. Real life result 1-1 draw.

Real world vs Database: 1-0.

How do you get a draw from the database?

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How do you get a draw from the database?

This is not science - just for fun - so the db will just win if the "better" team wins....or if the teams are rated equally good. Here Mexico was in average 10 points better, and then I thought that the db should lose, when the result was a draw.

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Match number two:

France: Average CA of the 14 players that entered the pitch: 161,9

Uruguay: Average CA of the 14 players that enteret the pitch: 139,5

According to the db it should be an easy victory for France. Real life result 0-0 draw.

Real world vs Database: 2-0

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Match 3:

South Korea vs Greece:

South Korea: Average CA 127

Greece: Average CA 130,8

According to DB Greece slightly the better team. Real life result 2-0 to South Korea.

Real world vs Database: 3-0

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Whats the CA of the respective managers, add that into it

I agree, and start to include the CA of the managers from now on.

Match 4:

Argentina vs Nigeria:

Argentina: Average CA of 156,4

Nigeria: Average CA of 135

According to DB - easy victory for Argentina. World cup result: 1-0

Real world vs database: 3-1

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Match 5:

England vs USA.

Average CA England: 161,7

Average CA USA: 132

According to DB - an easy win for England. World cup result: 1-1

Real world vs database: 4-1

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Match 6:

Algeria vs Slovenia.

Average CA Algeria: 130,5

Average CA Slovenia: 125

According to DB - Algeria sligthly better. World cup result 0-1

Real world vs database: 5-1

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Match 7:

Serbia vs Ghana.

Average CA Serbia: 145,8

Average CA Ghana: 128

According to DB - pretty easy win for Serbia. World cup result 0-1

Real world vs database 6-1.

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Match 8:

Germany vs Australia

Average CA Germany: 152,6

Average CA Australia: 132,1

According to db - easy win for Germany. World cup result: 4-0 and easy win. (Must say that Germany impressed me today!)

Real world vs database: 6-2

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I reckon Miles Jacobson and the rest of the gang too will be interested to see this, potentially referring to it in his daily blogs on Mirror Football. I also think that when the CA difference is neglible, such as Greece v South Korea, it could be assumed a draw is the likeliest event.

I don't really see why.

CA is subjective and just gives an overall impression of quality with players potentially missing key attributes for their position while we know it takes more than just good players to win games.

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I don't really see why.

CA is subjective and just gives an overall impression of quality with players potentially missing key attributes for their position while we know it takes more than just good players to win games.

Fair enough, each to their own. It is an interesting thread however, and I look forward to seeing the final outcome.

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I reckon Miles Jacobson and the rest of the gang too will be interested to see this, potentially referring to it in his daily blogs on Mirror Football. I also think that when the CA difference is neglible, such as Greece v South Korea, it could be assumed a draw is the likeliest event.

I agree, and would have given the database the victory if the match ended with a draw, and with a victory for Greece.

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i really think if yhe teams abverage CA are within 5 or 10 of eachother, you should have the database down as a would be draw.

saying greece should win as South Korea have an average CA of 127 compared to Greeces average CA of 130,8 is a bit misguided.

its like sayingWest ham should beat wigan, when really most people would hvae it down as a draw

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Match 9:

Netherlands vs Denmark:

Average CA Netherlands: 152,9

Average Ca Denmark: 136,2

According to database: easy victory for Netherlands. World cup result: 2-0

Real world vs Database: 6-3

Because of the lack of japanese players in the database, all matches with Japan will go out of this thread.

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Match 10:

Italy vs Paraguay:

Average CA Italy: 162

Average CA Paraguay: 137,9

According to db - easy victory for Italy. World cup result: 1-1

Real world vs database: 7-3

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Yeh saying 1-5 point variant in CA = a win for either side is quite silly.

I know its just for fun, and I do find it interesting, but when its totally depicted incorrectly and illogically its rather pointless.

First of all I find 10 points far to much to call it close. If you go into the data issue forum, you will find that almost every researcher will call a boost for a player of 10 ability points for an established player (and players in the world cup is established) for a massive boost! So when a team is in average 10 points better, the database find the team a lot better. For a team with subs (most teams have used at least two subs) it means a difference in quality of aprox. 13-150 ability points in total.

The way I do it is that I give the database the point if the better team wins or if it's a draw when the CA is within 5 points comparing the teams. If the "weaker" team wins I will allways give the database a lose. This far it's just been two matches with almost similar teams, and in both matches the weaker side has won. I don't find this way of doing it illogical, if you do you you have to make your own thread cause I won't change :-)

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Match 11:

New Zealand vs Slovakia:

Average CA New Zealand: 103

Average CA Slovakia: 133,8

According to database - easy victory for Slovakia. World cup result: 1-1

Real World vs database: 8-3

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Match 12:

Ivory Coast vs Portugal:

Average CA Ivory Coast: 146

Average CA Portugal: 151,9

According to database - close call with a slight advantage Portugal. World cup result: 1-1

Real world vs database: 8-4

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Match 13:

Brazil vs North Korea

Average CA Brazil: 162,6

Average CA NK: 84,8

According to db - easy victory for Brazil. World cup result: 2-1

Real world vs database: 8-5

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Match 3:

South Korea vs Greece:

South Korea: Average CA 127

Greece: Average CA 130,8

According to DB Greece slightly the better team. Real life result 2-0 to South Korea.

Real world vs Database: 3-0

Greece had a bad manager who fielded the wrong players and didn't even call up some more deserving players.

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Match 14:

Honduras vs Chile:¨

Average CA Honduras: 122,6

Average CA Chile: 137

According to database: victory for Chile. World cup result: 0-1

Real world vs database: 8-6

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Match 15:

Spain vs Switzerland

Average CA Spain: 167,8

Average CA Switzerland: 142

According to database: Victory for spain. World cup result: 0-1

Real world vs database: 9-6

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Match 16:

South Africa vs Uruguay

Average CA SA: 128,4

Average CA Uruguay: 141,3

According to database - victory for Uruguay. World cup result 0-3.

Real world vs database 9-7

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Match 17:

South Korea vs Argentina:

Average CA South Korea: 126,3

Average CA Argentina: 155

According to database: Easy victory for Argentina. World cup result: 1-4

Real world vs database: 9-8

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Match 18:

Greece vs Nigeria:

Average CA Greece: 135

Average CA Nigeria: 133,2

According to database: Thight match with Greece with a minor advantage (home or draw) World cup result: 2-1

Real world vs database: 9-9

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Match 19:

France vs Mexico:

Average CA France: 158

Average CA Mexico: 138,3

According to database: Easy victory for France. World cup result: 0-2

Real world vs database: 10-9

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Hello !

In defense of the database lets admit there was a lot of surprising/shocking(spain) results in this world cup so far...

I think FM 2010 is actually a quite good predictor. But I still wouldn't bet! :D

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Match 20:

Germany vs Serbia:

Average CA Germany: 152,6

Average CA Serbia: 145,2

According to database: Slight advantage Germany. World cup result: 0-1

Real world vs database: 11-9

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Match 21:

Slovenia vs USA.

Average CA Slovenia: 125

Average CA USA: 130,9

According to database: Draw or slight win for USA. World cup result: 2-2

Real world vs database: 11-10

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Match 22:

England vs Algeria

Average CA England: 162,7

Average CA Algeria: 128,6

According to database: Easy victory for England. World cup result: 0-0

Real world vs database: 12-10

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