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Pre-Season Prediction


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I have started a new game with Derby (again) as i wanted to play it better this time round. I had read the good players forum and had managed to sign a few players that are way better than the existing team replaced them.

The media predicts that Derby will have a mid-table finish, and surprisingly i had won all 5 initial games bar one. Subsequently i had been mostly winning and was 3rd on the table by November of the first season. I would say it has been quite a pleasant surprise given that this team is made up of mostly new players.

Then all of a sudden, i began to lose games consecutively despite that i do not have any major injuries or did not change any tatics. Earlier in the season i dominated Nottingham Forest (my rival) away and won convincingly, but in the reverse fixture at home now, my team struggle to register any meaningful shots at all, which was quite a shock, given the sudden change in a space of a few months.

Hence it makes me wonder, is that the game recognises that my team is doing way above expectations hence it is 're-adjusting' the positioning of my team.

I am still in January and i shall reserve my judgement till the end of the season, but given the circumstances, i am quite sceptical and dissapointed at how things are panning out at the moment.

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No the game isn't trying to force you to be a mid table team. I have many times won promotion with relegation candidates over various FM versions.

What may have happend is that wins and losses often come in streaks. You win, morale improves, so you win again. You lose, morale decrease, so you lose again. Do the players have low morale? If so try doing something about that.

Or maybe the AI just figured out how to counter your strategy. Haven't had it happend to me but some people feel that the AI figure out their strategy sooner or later and they need to change it.

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Or maybe the AI just figured out how to counter your strategy. Haven't had it happend to me but some people feel that the AI figure out their strategy sooner or later and they need to change it.

I do not believe that to be true. I have one tactic and one tactic only. Over the course of the season I'll almost always win the league with games to spare and at least one other trophy.

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I feel the AI work out your tactics. Over various versions of FM I have found that during November and then around March the game AI adjust to your tactics so you need to tweak it a bit.

To be honest, I don't think so.

I've been pretty much playing with the 1 formation and it seems to work fine.

If anything, I was in better form in the latter half of the season since the players were gelling better.

What is important tho is morale and fatigue.

At the start, everyone's fresh and morale is good (preseason wins).

So you get a bit of a roll happening. Come November, fatigue starts kicking in, and you may lose one or two games.

Then morale slips and then you lose a few more games.

However, there's nothing I see in the tactics that's designed specifically to counter the players.

Chelsea always play the same formation, and so does Portsmouth/Wigan.

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The AI doesn't work out your tactics as such, but they do seem to play more attacking/defensive football depending on form and league position, and reputation. So if you're on a winning streak and overperforming they're more likely to park the bus against you and play counter attacking football, for example.

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The AI doesn't work out your tactics as such, but they do seem to play more attacking/defensive football depending on form and league position, and reputation. So if you're on a winning streak and overperforming they're more likely to park the bus against you and play counter attacking football, for example.

Surely that means they work out your tactics as they are playing to stop you from playing.

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