Long Shots Analysis (Player Naming)

Seems like everyday on these forums there is complaints about the amount of long shots that fly in on FM10, however I haven't seen too much actual anaylsis on comparing the game with real life. I've done a quick comparison here based on this weekend's action from the Premier League to League Two and the most recent round of matches on my save on the game.

I should clarify that I've defined a 'long shot' as a goal scored from the attacking player's last touch which occurs from outside the penalty area. Some of these are not what would generally be classed as 'long shots' as they are one on ones where the striker hits an early shot from range to beat a stranded GK. However I felt this was the easiest way to go about this and those one on ones I've mentioned happened in the game and this weekend in the real thing.

Please be aware that I am not attempting to prove a point with these stats, I just want to post some actual analysis and you can make what you want from them. I am also aware that evidence from one round of games is not conclusive whatsoever - half a season's worth would probably be required but unfortunately I don't have the time nor inclination to be doing that without some monetary incentive! Hopefully some anecdotal evidence is better that pure speculation though.

Premier League

There were a total of 34 goals scored from 10 games on 21-22 November 2009 IRL.

Goals scored from outside the area = 4 (David Bentley's free kick not included as it was officially credited as a Kirkland own goal)

There were a total of 32 goals scored from 10 games on the most recent round of matches on my FM10 save.

Goals scored from outside the area = 6

The six players were:

Leighton Baines (Everton) - Long shot attribute = 15

Carlos Tevez (Man City) - Long shot attribute = 14

Billy Jones (Ipswich Town) - Long shot attribute = 11 (this goal was an attempted cross that looped in)

David Bentley (Tottenham) - Long shot attribute = 14 (another attempted cross that caught out the GK)

Nenad Milijas (Wolves) - Long shot attribute = 20

Steven Gerrard (Liverpool) - Long shot attribute = 18

Championship

There were a total of 21 goals scored from 11 games on 20-22 November 2009 IRL.

Goals scored from outside the area = 4

There were a total of 25 goals scored from 11 games on the most recent round of matches on my FM10 save.

Goals scored from outside the area = 2

The two players were:

Jay Spearing (Reading) - Long shot attribute = 6

Steven Fletcher (Burnley) - Long shot attribute = 15

League One

There were a total of 34 goals scored from 12 games on 20-22 November 2009 IRL.

Goals scored from outside the area = 8

There were a total of 34 goals scored from 12 games on the most recent round of matches on my FM10 save.

Goals scored from outside the area = 3

The three players were:

Ian Harte (Carlisle) - Long shot attribute = 15

Ian Westlake(Wycombe) - Long shot attribute = 9

Steven Kabba (Brentford) - Long shot attribute = 7

League 2

There were a total of 29 goals scored from 10 games on 21-22 November 2009 IRL.

Goals scored from outside the area = 6

There were a total of 35 goals scored from 10 games on the most recent round of matches on my FM10 save.

Goals scored from outside the area = 5

The five players were:

Liam Feeney (Bournemouth) - Long shot attribute = 6

Mo Camara (Burton Albion) - Long shot attribute = 11

Jack Midson (Oxford Utd) - Long shot attribute = 3

Adam Murray (Oxford Utd) - Long shot attribute = 8

Dave Hibbert (Shrewsbury) - Long shot attribute = 9

Real life matches analysed = 45

Goals = 118

Goals from outside penalty area = 22

FM10 matches analysed = 45

Goals = 126

Goals from outside area = 16

Interesting. Despite these statistics I hope screamers won't get an increase with a patch. *gulp*

May sound stupid but I'm still hoping long shots get toned down, if anything just so my team stops wasting good chances by shooting from 30 yards.

I think there are certain players who score too many long range goals in FM10, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard take a bow. Of course they score them IRL but in my game they've both scored something like 45 goals in 60 games, many from long range.

Thanks for taking the time to put together those stats CPS, makes for interesting reading.

good job again CPS. did you see the long shot stats that isuckatfm posted in another thread?

good job again CPS. did you see the long shot stats that isuckatfm posted in another thread?

I didn't Mitja - what was it?

What:mad: !!! The long shots are completly unrealistic and ruin the game. I recently saw darren Fletcher score a screamer from the edge of the box to win a game.....oh, wait

:cool:Seriously fair play for effectively debunking the long shots myth

I didn't Mitja - what was it?

last season in PL 11,7% of all goals were scored outside 18 yards. this season 13,17%.

a sample of some 30 - 50 PL games would be sufficiant to make better conclussion of what's going on with long shots in the game.

Real life matches analysed = 45

Goals = 118

Goals from outside penalty area = 22

FM10 matches analysed = 45

Goals = 126

Goals from outside area = 16

I think SI have done really well obviously you would need to test it for another few weekend but I think the match engine is very good.

SI already said they want to lower long shots going in for about 20%.

I think the OP missed the point. Its not Long rangers scored in general rather Long rangers scored against you.

Of the 50 or so goals i conceded last season at least 50% were from long range. Conceded less this season but the percentage remains around the same. Not just the usual suspects either, but players who have no right to('thats his first goal for Wycombe!')

The unfuriating thing for me is that apparantly my best Long range shooter, V.d Vaart, isnt up to the task and despite his high stats gets around 3-4 a season from outside the box.

Although that might be considered realistic...

I can understand plenty of goals coming from long shots at the very top level.

I'm playing as Leicester in the Championship and some of the goals I'm conceding from outside the area are almost Roberto Carlos in that pre France 98 world cup tornament esque.

The players that are scoring them, more often than not, have long shot attribute of less than 10.

Please please please tone this down.

Firstly, you can't bring everything down to statistics. You also have to consider how the match engine displays said statistics.

Secondly, there are long shots, as in players taking a shot from around the box, and then there are ridiculous 30 yard curlers that Stevie Me would be proud of - being scored by average Championship (or lower division) players. The former is something that's indeed not happening often enough in FM while the latter should be a very rare occurrence as it is in reality.

How is it a myth if PaulC has accepted they are too effective? :confused:

They will be reduced in the next patch.

Firstly, you can't bring everything down to statistics. You also have to consider how the match engine displays said statistics.

How will you prove the long shots are too powerfull or not without comparing their prevalence in FM to that in real life?

'too much' or 'too few' are quantifications; so it's all about statistics.

How is it a myth if PaulC has accepted they are too effective? :confused:

They will be reduced in the next patch.

Isn't that a myth in itself?

I really like to see that post from Paul.

Not saying it doesn't exist, just haven't seen it.

How will you prove the long shots are too powerfull or not without comparing their prevalence in FM to that in real life?

'too much' or 'too few' are quantifications; so it's all about statistics.

Because to get accurate statistics you need to analyze every single one of those long shots separately to draw any relevant conclusions. A long punt by a goalkeeper that goes straight in falls under the long shot category (longer than 20 yards) but if all long shots in FM came from that would it still mean that FM is displaying everything properly? The statistics would match, wouldn't they.

Isn't that a myth in itself?

I really like to see that post from Paul.

Not saying it doesn't exist, just haven't seen it.

For 10.2 the main aims in regard to the issues here are:

- Reduce number of goals from long range by 20%

- Make players close down the player on the ball, or the player about to move onto the ball a bit quicker, and tighter if tactically appropriate

- Make players react quicker to the ball

- Address as many other issues as we can in the time we have

I dont want this to turn into a Q&A about every issue, but that is a brief summary of where I see it going for 10.2

Isn't that a myth in itself?

I really like to see that post from Paul.

Not saying it doesn't exist, just haven't seen it.

It's not a myth at all. Your posting today has been a shambles.

http://community.sigames.com/showthread.php?p=4266868#post4266868

Cheers for that link to the post Guys

As I said in the initial post, I am not trying to prove anything with these stats, however I feel it is always useful to have some actual analysis as opposed to speculation.

45 matches is an anecdotal sample, I'm aware of that, for this to be truly worthwhile I'd have to be doing this for around 500-1,000 games to see a true pattern and I can assure you I won't be doing that.

One point I will make is that sensational goals are scored every weekend in the Championship to League 2, remember these guys are still professionals, even a Sunday League player can welly a ball in from 25 yards once in a while. Great goals are not the preserve of Premier League players, I think its important to bear that in mind.

Again its hard to tell from one round of matches, but I will say that from those games I watched it would appear that more goals are scored from defensive and goalkeeping blunders in League Two than the Premiership which is encouraging.

If anyone has any interest I could extend this little experiment to one weekend's action in Serie A, La Liga, Ligue1, SPL, Bundesliga and the Eredivisie (if I can find a website with last weekend's goals of course).

Because to get accurate statistics you need to analyze every single one of those long shots separately to draw any relevant conclusions. A long punt by a goalkeeper that goes straight in falls under the long shot category (longer than 20 yards) but if all long shots in FM came from that would it still mean that FM is displaying everything properly? The statistics would match, wouldn't they.

good point; I misunderstood you.

I thought you meant that you had to "feel" what was right/wrong with the ME.

Cheers for that link to the post Guys

Hmmm,

now I've done some more reading, I'm afraid the myth is back for me :

Paul confirmed that he would lower long shot goals by 20%

But as I now understand:

in 9.3 long shot goals were at 16% of total goals

in 10.1 long shot goals are at 20% of total goals.

This is indeed a difference of 20% (20% of 20% = 4)

So in fact we are only talking about lowering them by 4 for every 100 long shot goals.

Is that really that big of a deal? :confused:

Hmmm,

now I've done some more reading, I'm afraid the myth is back for me :

Paul confirmed that he would lower long shot goals by 20%

But as I now understand:

in 9.3 long shot goals were at 16% of total goals

in 10.1 long shot goals are at 20% of total goals.

This is indeed a difference of 20% (20% of 20% = 4)

So in fact we are only talking about lowering them by 4 for every 100 long shot goals.

Is that really that big of a deal? :confused:

The big deal is that however many percent the difference is, the long shots aren't 'right' in the current version. Again, it's not simply about the amount of long shots, it's how these shots are taken, how they're defended against, who the players scoring from 30 yards are etc. I'm quite sure Paul isn't just looking at the stats and thinking 'right, let's make players score x amount less goals from range by whatever means'. He's looking at the bigger picture trying to tweak the whole engine so the shots that are taken make sense and look realistic. then as an outcome the statistics will fall into place. Or they won't. The game will be improved as a result either way.

The big deal is that however many percent the difference is' date=' the long shots aren't 'right' in the current version. Again, it's not simply about the amount of long shots, it's how these shots are taken, how they're defended against, who the players scoring from 30 yards are etc. I'm quite sure Paul isn't just looking at the stats and thinking 'right, let's make players score x amount less goals from range by whatever means'. He's looking at the bigger picture trying to tweak the whole engine so the shots that are taken make sense and look realistic. then as an outcome the statistics will fall into place. Or they won't. The game will be improved as a result either way.[/quote']

I agree that aiming for perfection is the way to go for SI.

But can you see my point as well?

If the long shot goals only have to be toned down for 4 goals out of every 100 scored, that's pretty decent, no?

Ok, granted, not perfect.

But good enough by my standards.

I agree that aiming for perfection is the way to go for SI.

But can you see my point as well?

If the long shot goals only have to be toned down for 4 goals out of every 100 scored, that's pretty decent, no?

Ok, granted, not perfect.

But good enough by my standards.

Your point is a bit irrelevant though because you're insisting on only looking at statistics ignoring the bigger picture. The exact percentage of 'toning down' does not matter at all if the way these shots are taken looks out of place and unrealistic. It's not just simply a case of reducing the shots taken (scored from) by x amount. If you look at the quote by PaulC above you'll see that closing down, defensive awareness and player reactions will also be improved. Which will all effect the long shots directly. Bottom line is, there are too many 30 yard screamers being scored that look out of place and SI are looking to rectify the problem. You can't deny that the problem exists.