Strikers score too much? Too many penalties etc? Some analysis

I've been reading through the forums the last couple of weeks and there has been some debate on the match engine failing in some areas, such as poor defending producing too many high scoring matches and goals for strikers + things like too many penalties - I'm sure plenty of you have read the threads. Too be honest I had some sympathy with these views, particularly strikers scoring too frequently, so, being laid up with flu and having some time on my hands, I decided to do some actual research as opposed to idly speculating that the game was failing, defending is broken, etc.

I finished a season with the following leagues on full detail: England, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Scotland & Spain. With the help of some useful websites I've done some comparisons between the FM season and the 3 preceding seasons in real life:

English Premier League

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1,033 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 953

2007-08 (irl) = 1,002

2006-07 (irl) = 931

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 29 0-0 draws, 50 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 40 0-0 draws, 40 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 26 0-0 draws, 45 games with 5 goals or more

2006-07 (irl) = 33 0-0 draws, 31 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 67

2008-09 (irl) = 83

2007-08 (irl) = 82

2006-07 (irl) = 105

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 13

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 3

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 8

2006-07 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 3

A cursory look at this would suggest that there are maybe slightly too many goals. The too many penalties argument should perhaps be that there are too few and it is quite rare for players to score 15+ goals in a season in real life - 14 in the past three Premier League seasons compared to 13 in one FM season suggest the game is again slightly askew here.

Of course looking at just one league doesn't prove much as my FM10 season could quite easily be an anomaly - perhaps doing the same test for the other major leagues I had running would provide a better picture?

well done!!

nice to see that only 1 player managed to score more than 25 goals but 13 players with 15+ goals looks like an real issue, strikers are scoring too much probably. I'd be more than interested in Leading scorers statistics in other leagues too.

other than that there are not major abnormalities (except too few penalties).

can you do the Long shot percentages too?

can you do the Long shot percentages too?

Ha, that might be beyond me - would have to be the longest flu in history! I'll do the French League later.

French Ligue 1

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1,075 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 858

2007-08 (irl) = 868

(couldn't find accurate stats for seasons prior to this)

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 32 0-0 draws, 65 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 40 0-0 draws, 22 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 55 0-0 draws, 34 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 89

2008-09 (irl) = 22

2007-08 (irl) = 39

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 17

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 4

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 6

A few bigger discrepances appearing here it has to be said. 5-5 draws between Lyon and Marseille aside, the French League has not been the most high scoring in the last two seasons e.g. Grenoble comfortably avoided relegation last season after only scoring 24 goals in 38 matches. FM10's 09-10 season had a whopping 65 matches with 5 goals or more compared to only 22 in 08-09 and 34 in 07-08 IRL, with a total goal tally of over 200 more than 07-08 and 08-09. The penalty stats seem extraordinary to me so make what you will of those (irl the Premier League had over 100 pens irl in 2006-07 compared to 22 in Ligue 1 in 2008-09! Different refereeing remits perhaps?). Again, the instances of players scoring 15 goals or more in FM10 far exceeded the real life stats.

It is always nice to see a bit of research like this

English Premier League

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1,033 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 953

2007-08 (irl) = 1,002

2006-07 (irl) = 931

Something interesting that could be added to this is the projected total for the 09-10 season IRL, which I've calculated to be 1095 based on the number of goals scored so far, assuming that rate stays constant for the rest of the season.

Yes, a projected total is useful for 09-10 as, let's face it, that is the season we start with in the simulation.

German Bundesliga

this league has only 18 teams playing 34 matches each, in comparison to 20 teams with 38 matches in the two leagues above

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 892 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 855

2007-08 (irl) = 856

(couldn't find accurate stats for seasons prior to this)

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 25 0-0 draws, 57 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 14 0-0 draws, 50 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 20 0-0 draws, 48 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 78

2008-09 (irl) = 32

2007-08 (irl) = 24

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 8

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 2 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 7

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 3

Goal trends in FM10 seem to suit the high scoring Bundesliga perfectly. Its remarkable to think that the German League produces almost exacly the same amount of goals as the French IRL despite the big gap in matches played. So far the FM goal trends are similar across the Leagues - could FM perhaps take these leagues cultural and historic differences into account somehow? Twice as many 0-0's in France (40) than Germany in 08-09 (14) in many more games is a major difference. Could be very tough to implement no doubt.

Still don't know what to make of these penalty figures...

I agree. Way too many goals. I'm managing Huddersfield, and I get results like 5-1, 4-4, 3-4, 3-3 all the time. I checked the top 5 topscorer list after the first season ended, and none had less than 35 goals, while the winner had 40 goals.

From my three strikers, I had Lee Novak at 31 goals, Jordan Rhodes at 30 (was injured for 3-4 months aswell), and Theo Robinson (wich was mainly used as a substitute and got some games while Rhodes were out), had 18. Granted, this was for all competitions, but I went out early in every cup, so most of them was in League One games.

What's your source for the RL German and French penalty counts, CPS? They seem very strange, as you say.

I'd be interested to know what the pens/game ratio is like for the lower leagues in England, because I suspect that if there's a problem, it might be the way it scales down to League2/Conference/BSN/BSS level.

The French and German stats you've posted are still at 0.23 and 0.25 pens/game, which is a bit higher than the 0.20 pens/game ratio that PaulC says they try and aim for.

There's no doubt that strikers are getting much too big a share of the goals, but I imagine that's a very tricky one to fix.

What's your source for the RL German and French penalty counts, CPS? They seem very strange, as you say.

I'd be interested to know what the pens/game ratio is like for the lower leagues in England, because I suspect that if there's a problem, it might be the way it scales down to League2/Conference/BSN/BSS level.

The French and German stats you've posted are still at 0.23 and 0.25 pens/game, which is a bit higher than the 0.20 pens/game ratio that PaulC says they try and aim for.

The RL stats penalty stats were from a website called statsbunker, but they do seem to be too low. Might be best to disregard them - everything else is right to the best of my knowledge. Serie A to come after Ireland v France.

I'll post my 2009/2010 Premier League stats after Portugal - Bosnia and Herzegovina game.

Italian Serie A

this league has only 20 teams playing 38 matches each

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1133 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 988

2007-08 (irl) = 962

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 16 0-0 draws, 68 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 16 0-0 draws, 49 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 30 0-0 draws, 42 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 71

2008-09 (irl) = ?

2007-08 (irl) = 95

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 2 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 17

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 5

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 8

The Italian League is well known for dour, low scoring games, however that is something of a fallacy these days which still occasionally gets peddled by the British press. Goal tallies IRL in the Premier League and Serie A are now quite similar, however my FM season produced a mammoth 1,138 goals, which equates to roughly 3 goals per game. Too many high scoring games were produced here with 19 players notching 15 goals or more, with 11 of those breaking the 20 goal barrier. Too many? Well put it this way, in the past past 4 seasons in real life, from 2005 to 2009, the 20 goal barrier has been broken accumulatively only 8 times in Serie A.

I've skipped the Dutch League as I couldn't find real life figures that were quickly interpreted like the others. So Spain and this one to go:

Scottish Premier League

this league has only 12 teams playing 38 matches each, so 228 matches as opposed to 380 in the 20 team leagues

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 594 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 547

2007-08 (irl) = 610

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 10 0-0 draws, 23 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 20 0-0 draws, 19 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 16 0-0 draws, 31 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 47

2008-09 (irl) = 55

2007-08 (irl) = 55

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 5

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 3

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 2

Not much to say with this one other than FM10 is pretty much spot on, right down to having one prolific striker getting over 20 goals leaving the competiton trailing in his wake - as what happened irl in the two seasons I've looked at. I think its safe to say that Scotland is the weakest of the leagues in this experiment, it is also the one with the lowest goal average per game and the least prolific strikers in FM10. Is there a possible correlation there? Do great strikers dominate great defenders in a way that average strikers don't dominate average defenders and if so why is that? I've communicated that badly but hopefully you see where I'm coming from. Would be useful to see if this possible trend extended to the likes of Blue Square N & S or the Irish League, for example.

I might have an explaination for one of those 'stats' that appears to be wrong in each group.

The total goals is slightly higher, but not my much, however the number of players scoring 15+ goals is higher across the board.

That would make sense if the total number of goals was massively high, but its not. Therefore I can only see one conclusion, and I hope everyone else agrees with me.

In RL there is a lot of rotation, even top strikers are rotated in and out if there is a very important game midweek/ weekend etc. Now, if I let my assistant manager pick my team for me (which is the same or similar to an AI manager) then he puts the same 3 forward players in every single time, even if their fitness is 85% or lower. This, imo, doesnt happen in RL (unless its torres or gerrard and raffa has no other options!) and this is the reason why more players are getting more goals, without the total going up much - because there is less rotation.

Valuable stats, thanks!

Maidel - I take your point about rotation possibly playing a part with clubs being involved in Europe. AI managers in FM will play Gerrard, Torres, Rooney et al 3 times a week with little thought to rotate, however, rotation irl happens almost exclusively at the elite clubs. For instance, there is not much chance of say Bolton, Sunderland, Stoke rotating players for Premier League games - domestic cup games yes, but not league games.

I think it may be a small factor - personally my theory is that strikers or AMC's hog goals from orthodox midfielders and wide players in FM10, there is not a wide enough spread of goals. The stats I've posted suggests that there are slightly too many goals across the board in most of the leagues but goals are being dominated by strikers. Even lowly teams are producing strikers with 1 in 2 ratios or better on a regular basis - a 37 year old Jan Koller at Frieburg scored 13 goals in his 1st 7 Bundesliga games for instance. IRL its not uncommon for a striker in the Premier League, a regular starter at a struggling club, to be averaging a goal every 4 to 5 games - in FM this ratio is around a goal every 2 to 3 games. Even someone of the calibre of Didier Drogba only scored 5 goals in 25 Premier League appearances last season.

When I say the spread of goals isn't wide enough I mean that in terms of the AI. You or I can create a tactic which can enable a variety of players to get into goal scoring positions, I don't believe the AI does. Do AI managers instruct wingers to cut inside for instance or are they all on rails running to the byline and crossing often? Do you ever see a goal scoring full-back in FM by the way - and by that mean one that might pop up in the box and score 3 or 4 goals a season from open play? Think Pearce, Dicks or Irwin in years gone by, they scored plenty of set pieces but were a real threat in open play too. Glen Johnson is reliable to score his 3 a season, even Steinsson at Bolton got 3 last term. The only goals I've seen FB's score from open play are misdirected crosses that loop in.

Maidel - I take your point about rotation possibly playing a part with clubs being involved in Europe. AI managers in FM will play Gerrard, Torres, Rooney et al 3 times a week with little thought to rotate, however, rotation irl happens almost exclusively at the elite clubs. For instance, there is not much chance of say Bolton, Sunderland, Stoke rotating players for Premier League games - domestic cup games yes, but not league games.

Well - I think you need to go and check which players provided those 15+ goals and which clubs they played for (were any of those players DC? I seem to always see 1 DC every season with at least 10+ epl goals.)

Your idea is also a good possiblity

Well - I think you need to go and check which players provided those 15+ goals and which clubs they played for (were any of those players DC? I seem to always see 1 DC every season with at least 10+ epl goals.)

Your idea is also a good possiblity

Off the top of my head I don't think there were any high scoring defenders - the corner 'bug' appears to have been toned down in this version. But I will do that and the La Liga stats, but for now I think its bed-time.

Nicely done.

Clearly shows the match engine isn't totally off.

When SI improve the defending, closing down, tackling and stop the hugely excessive one on one chances we will have a very decent match engine.

Also I have always agreed that the Italian Serie A is not as bad as everyone says and the EPL isn't as great as everyone thinks.

I would like to see the stats "goals from corners".

I definately know that in the EPL a huge chunk of their goals come from corners, and bad defending.

theres probably a good reason why the wingers arent scoring a great deal. if you look at a winger setting, they have byline as the cross point and i havent seen players deviate all that much from the instruction no matter how high the creativity. My midfield players also score very little. The biggest reason is probably the types of goals being scored in fm 10. everyone has commented on the ability of strikers to get on the end of through balls and leave the defenders in the dust. if these are the most goal type then of course strikers are going to bag the majority of goals as they are the ones on the end of the through ball. Maybe the teams are playing too direct a style and not building up enough. over reliance on counter attacking strategies could also come into effect.

These are stats I said I will post:

English Premier League

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1,022 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 953

2007-08 (irl) = 1,002

2006-07 (irl) = 931

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 19 0-0 draws, 51 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 40 0-0 draws, 40 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 26 0-0 draws, 45 games with 5 goals or more

2006-07 (irl) = 33 0-0 draws, 31 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 75

2008-09 (irl) = 83

2007-08 (irl) = 82

2006-07 (irl) = 105

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 10

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 3

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 8

2006-07 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 3

total goals seem ok in my save, maybe slightly too high. the biggest difference was in goalless draws with only 19 matches finishing 0-0. again the number of players scoring 15+ goals is too high. that seems to be the biggest problems in all our research so far.

Italian Serie A

this league has only 20 teams playing 38 matches each

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1126 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 988

2007-08 (irl) = 962

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 20 0-0 draws, 62 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 16 0-0 draws, 49 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 30 0-0 draws, 42 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 79

2008-09 (irl) = ?

2007-08 (irl) = 95

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 22

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 5

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 8

I expected Seria A to be the league with most inaccurate stats. Part of the problem here is surely poor and over-rated Italian research, where if player is bad at something, he's given 12 in that attribute. in my save there was only one team which didn't manage to score more than 1 goal/game! the number of players scoring more than 15 goals is also something I expected, and there were 5 players who scored more than 20 goals.

You say that Italian teams are over-rated.

While I cannot comment on that, I personally have noticed that in FM2010 there is nearly not a single viable defender in Serie A, and the strikers are decent, resulting in a lot of goals.

I also noticed that in the EPL on FM10, the defenders are absolutely crazily over rated. Some strikers in FM10 should be better (Torres etc).

Just compare Inter's defenders to those of most of the EPL, its laughable. Players like Maicon, Chivu and others looking woeful.

I also wanted to make a quick mention about over-rated players - have you seen Peter Crouch? 19 Finishing. 'nuff said.

Italian research is very well known to be over-rated, that's a fact. also both experiments we did in Serie A prove that it's a league with most inacurate stats so far.

let's not move awey from this thread's purpose too much.

Wow you're spot on abt the serie A stats. I've played in the Serie A for 5 seasons now and observed almost every season the high number of goals strikers are getting and the crazy scoring games, like 8-0, 7-0, 7-4. Anyway I found there are good defenders like Bochetti, Esposito, Santacroce, Criscito etc.

Wow you're spot on abt the serie A stats. I've played in the Serie A for 5 seasons now and observed almost every season the high number of goals strikers are getting and the crazy scoring games, like 8-0, 7-0, 7-4. Anyway I found there are good defenders like Bochetti, Esposito, Santacroce, Criscito etc.

I must say that I haven't noticed many crazy scoring games so far, even in Seie A. looks like too many goals scored is only a slight problem but in Serie A total goals scored seems to be a real issue, much too many players scoring over 15, 20 goals and too few 0-0 games show that too. but part of the problem is surely that the Italian db is over-rated. a couple of more test would be very welcomed for all leagues..it doesn't take that long, maybe 10 minutes to calculate it all after seson is over (you can holyday the game until 20th of May)

I think there is a serious issue with data research in Italy, its not really my place to say but it appears that one researcher is saddled with the whole league from what I read of the Serie A data thread. No doubt the fella is doing his best but stats seem to be changed very regularly at the behest of posters unlike the other data issue threads.

Give me 10 minutes and I'll post up the Spanish League stats.

Edit: Oh and thanks to Mitja for posting up some additional stats to beef up the research a bit.

I'm looking forward to the Spanish League Stats. I'm managing Real Madrid at the moment, 2nd season, and the stats I've seen so far are ridiculous. David Villa became top goalscorer with 39 goals and at least 8 players scored 20+ goals in the first season.

Never mind the fact that at least 50% of my goals came from outside the box.

I know this because at least 1 of every 2 goals is a shot from distance. Usually Kaka or Van der Vaart, sometimes Alonso.

I don't think we even need to do statstics about long distance goals, as it is obvious there are way too many.

Spanish La Liga

this league has 20 teams playing 38 matches each

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1,096 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 1,101

2007-08 (irl) = 980

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 21 0-0 draws, 58 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 17 0-0 draws, 73 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 27 0-0 draws, 57 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 73

2008-09 (irl) = ?

2007-08 (irl) = ?

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 3 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 14

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 3 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 11

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 13

La Liga has had goals galore in the past two seasons, particularly 08-09 and like the Bundesliga, FM10 replicates this well. Its the first league I've looked at where players scoring 15+ goals per season happens close to what we're seeing in FM.

all very interesting and while it does seem maybe a few extra goals are being scored, and a few to many players are scoring over 15 goals a season i would much sooner have games that are slightly higher scoring over all than lots of 1-0 games, for me it makes FM more enjoyable.

yes i want FM to be realistic but i dont want to sit and watch lots of dour 1-0's through out the season.

these are stats in La Liga in my save.

Spanish La Liga

this league has 20 teams playing 38 matches each

Total goals per season

FM10 09-10 = 1,175 goals

2008-09 (irl) = 1,101

2007-08 (irl) = 980

Goalless draws vs. high scoring games (games with 5 goals or more)

FM10 09-10 = 18 0-0 draws, 80 games with 5 goals or more

2008-09 (irl) = 17 0-0 draws, 73 games with 5 goals or more

2007-08 (irl) = 27 0-0 draws, 57 games with 5 goals or more

Penalties

FM10 09-10 = 71

2008-09 (irl) = ?

2007-08 (irl) = ?

Leading scorers

FM10 09-10 = Players scoring 25+ goals = 5 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 17

2008-09 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 3 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 11

2007-08 (irl) = Players scoring 25+ goals = 1 Total number of players with 15+ goals = 13

the stats I got seem slightly too high compared to real life in all departments. like in Serie A there was only one team that didn't manage to score more than a goal per game. 2 players managed to score more than 30 goals, and 11 players scored more than 20. in real life in season 07/08 there were only 3 players that scored more than 20 and in seson 08/08 there were 5 players.

I think we are getting the pattern here slowly. it would be nice if more people were willing to do the same. just put the stats you got into CPS posts.

CPS

compared to yours my La Liga stats are really way off the real life. I think we would need a couple of more stats for each League to make serous conclusions. but some things are quite obvious even now..

all very interesting and while it does seem maybe a few extra goals are being scored, and a few to many players are scoring over 15 goals a season i would much sooner have games that are slightly higher scoring over all than lots of 1-0 games, for me it makes FM more enjoyable.

yes i want FM to be realistic but i dont want to sit and watch lots of dour 1-0's through out the season.

I think that is the crux of it. The vast majority of people who play the game won't care one jot about this and will be delighted to have their strikers scoring 25-30 goals every season - I suspect that if goals are toned down for a new patch it would garner a fair bit of criticism from some quarters. My counter argument to that would be that I'd like it to be something of a challenge and an event to get a striker notching 25-30 goals. If it happens too regularly it ceases to be any kind of achievement I think.

Earlier Maidel asked me to supply a list of the clubs who were supplying the 15+ goalscorers, I don't what to go through all of them as that would just be blinding people with stats, but here's the extreme example:

France

FM10 09-10 = 15 (!) clubs with 17 scorers getting 15+ goals (PSG & Nancy with 2, Sochaux, Nice, St Etienne, Boulogne, Toulouse, Grenoble, Lyon, Auxerre, Lille, Bordeaux, Marseille, Stade Rennais and Lens with 1 each)

2008-09 irl = 4 clubs with 4 scorers (Toulouse, Lyon, PSG & Marseille with 1 each)

2008-09 irl = 5 clubs with 6 scorers (Marseille with 2 & Lorient, Lyon, St Etienne and Bordeaux with 1 each)

So that's 75% of the clubs in France produced what could be described as a reasonably prolific scorer. Italy and Spain were similar with 12 & 13 clubs respectively producing a 15+ goal man. Even in the Spanish League goal fest of 08-09 the 15+ men were supplied by only 7 clubs (Barca, Real and At. Madrid being responsible for a big chunk of those). What this suggests to me is that struggling clubs are still producing regular goalscorers quite often when the real world stats don't back that up particularly well.

Wow hadn't realized strikers score so many goals in the Spanish La Liga IRL. I guess FM is more accurate then I thought.

Still, 39 league goals by one player is overkill.

Wow hadn't realized strikers score so many goals in the Spanish La Liga IRL. I guess FM is more accurate then I thought.

Still, 39 league goals by one player is overkill.

we can't say it's accurate or inaccurate so far. while CP's stas are more in line with real life, stats I posted are not.

Yes, La Liga looks ok to me, although David Villa is supercharged in FM10 - virtually a guarantee of a goal per game.

Mitja - I don't think your La Liga results look too bad. The goal return is close, 0-0's are similar as are the 5+ goal matches, certainly with 08-09 anyway. The amount of players scoring 15+ goals is again quite high though.

So that's 75% of the clubs in France produced what could be described as a reasonably prolific scorer. Italy and Spain were similar with 12 & 13 clubs respectively producing a 15+ goal man. Even in the Spanish League goal fest of 08-09 the 15+ men were supplied by only 7 clubs (Barca, Real and At. Madrid being responsible for a big chunk of those). What this suggests to me is that struggling clubs are still producing regular goalscorers quite often when the real world stats don't back that up particularly well.

My theory on that is this: In FM, if a striker with high finishing and composure stats gets a chance it's nearly always a goal. No matter what team he plays in. However, IRL if a team is struggling the entire team lacks confidence, including the strikers, meaning they are more likely to rue chances.

Just a theory

Another thing that one might have to take into account is that struggling teams tend to play less offensive IRL. In contrast to FM in which struggling teams often play very offensive as I have noticed myself whilst playing with Real Madrid in La Liga. The amount of space they leave open at the back is appalling at times.

we can't say it's accurate or inaccurate so far. while CP's stas are more in line with real life, stats I posted are not.

I was only referring to the high amount of 15+ goalscorers, see one of my previous posts.

Besides, I don't think FM's stats in La Liga are very far off for a computer game.

I think Mitja's La Liga stats seem to be well in line with real life stats, especially when you consider attacking players like ronaldo and kaka have moved there hence the increase in goals scored. I don't think we should expect stats to remain the same for every successive season, unless of course there are huge inconsistencies.

My theory on that is this: In FM, if a striker with high finishing and composure stats gets a chance it's nearly always a goal. No matter what team he plays in. However, IRL if a team is struggling the entire team lacks confidence, including the strikers, meaning they are more likely to rue chances.

Just a theory

Another thing that one might have to take into account is that struggling teams tend to play less offensive IRL. In contrast to FM in which struggling teams often play very offensive as I have noticed myself whilst playing with Real Madrid in La Liga. The amount of space they leave open at the back is appalling at times.

I can see where you're coming from and that would back up some people's concerns about the quality of defending, or lack of it in FM10.

I have one more little stats splurge to do on this then I'm going back to actually playing the game!

I just thought of yet another theory to explain the difference in 15 + goalscorers between FM and IRL that might even be more plausible.

Perhaps IRL more goals are scored from set pieces then in FM? That would mean that IRL the goals are more equally divided over the entire squad as most goals from set pieces are scored by big defenders, free kick takers and from rebounds (which can be scored by anybody, excl. the GK).

Certainly too many penalties being given against me.

Away at Spurs they got 1 and scored 1

Away at Chelsea they got 1 and scored 1

Away at Hull they got 2 and scored 2

Away at Villa they got 2 and scored 1

Ive only played 8 matches!!

Default (standard) tackling as well.

I think Mitja's La Liga stats seem to be well in line with real life stats, especially when you consider attacking players like ronaldo and kaka have moved there hence the increase in goals scored. I don't think we should expect stats to remain the same for every successive season, unless of course there are huge inconsistencies.

Good thinking, as Ronaldo and Kaka are absolute monsters in FM10.

Just going to post this in way of conclusion to the stats I've put up previously, to add an extra bit of comparison I've added some goal ratio's from my last game on FM09 (final patch). I only had England, Spain and Scotland on full detail so the averages from there come from the preceding two season's in those leagues:

Average number of goals per game in real life data analysed above = 2.565 (11,511 goals from 4,488 games).

Average number of goals per game in FM10 data analysed above = 2.835 (5,823 goals from 2,054 games).

Average number of goals per game in FM09 data analysed = 2.580 (5,099 goals from 1,976 games).

Also, some info on the 15+ goalscorers in England, Spain and Scotland in my last FM09 season:

England = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 20-24 = 3 Total number with 15+ goals = 5

Spain = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 20-24 = 2 Total number with 15+ goals = 4

Scotland = Players scoring 25+ goals = 0 20-24 = 1 Total number with 15+ goals = 3

Not exactly a fair test as my old science teacher would say, as the FM10, FM09 and RL data analysed isn't uniform but it gives you something of an idea I hope.

Edit: forgot to put this last little bit in:

Players with 15+ goals from 6 leagues in FM10 =76 - an average of 12.6 per season

Players with 15+ goals from 13 leagues IRL =77 - an average of 5.9 per season

I think Mitja's La Liga stats seem to be well in line with real life stats, especially when you consider attacking players like ronaldo and kaka have moved there hence the increase in goals scored. I don't think we should expect stats to remain the same for every successive season, unless of course there are huge inconsistencies.

I don't think they reflect the real life stats that well. looking at other real life stats in leagues that have the same number of clubs it looks like high scoring last season in La Liga was more of a exception. the same goes for high scoring games where we can easily see that there are too many in all leagues. just like there are too few 0-0 results. stats that are most off the line compared to real life are best goalscorers.

but it depends how you look at this issue. you might think that it's ok, if only 10 players more than in real life managed to score more than 15 goals in a league. I might think it's a way off.

what's clear so far is that strikers do score too many.

8.0.3 had the best match engine imo

what's clear so far is that strikers do score too many.

According to stats there isn't big difference between FM and real life but I think that you should remember that in FM strikers are not as good finishers as they are in real life.

In my first season Jó scored 23 goals in Premiership in 32 games. Many of them from break-aways and long shots even though he isn't fast or hasn't got good long shots.

In the whole league Tevez scored 30 goals in 35 games (never gonna happen IRL), Rooney scored 24 in just 24 games (Finishing 15 and composure 13, hmmmm must have had many chances) and Torres scored 21 in 28 games, this was the only realistic amount of goals IMO in top-4 scorers...

8.0.3 had the best match engine imo

There never was an 8.0.3!

8.0.2 wasn't great but it did give reasonably accurate results. However, the AI was always too good at keeping possession (those dreaded 10-20 consecutive passes in your opponent's full-back area between 3 players, even with maximum closing down, because offensive players shied away from staying in that area - good, undeflected crosses from deep are very rare in that version). In addition there were irritating things like how defensive midfielders always pushed up meaning you couldn't make them an anchorman and central attacking midfielders with forward arrows were guaranteed to tear defences apart (as defensive midfielders pushed up). But the ends justified the means if you like as results seemed oddly accurate and fair to me.