Match Odds Calculations– Team or Player Reputations

I am playing my new save and managing a club at the bottom of the league and now I focus a lot on match odds to think about my overall team talks, tactics etc. and like always I like reading the pre and post match analysis just to see what the pundits thought of my game.

So as usual since I am managing a club who have just been promoted, no matter which team I faced I was always heavy favourite to loose, and at no point was I even given a chance to winning a match in pre match analysis by any pundits.

So I decided to see what’s more important player or team reputation when it comes to calculating match odds etc.

I loaded up the editor and made a brand new team, gave them the lowest rep in the league, and decided to transfer some top players over into the squad. Not the best of the best but some players who can win the league easily.

I transferred over:

Given

Canavaro

Marquez

Ashely Cole

Gibs

Scholes

Guti

Wilshire

Wellbeck

Gudjohnsen

Bent

So I load up the game and again my team is odds on to get relegated and every match I am heavy favourite to loose, even when I am winning every game by 7-8 goals post match analysis is always “this has to be classed as major upset”

So I am thinking player rep has no impact on match odds, if that’s the case don’t you think this should be reviewed as I am sure if those players played in Blue Square South the team would be heavy favourite to win the league and every game.

What you think?

Abs

I am playing my new save and managing a club at the bottom of the league and now I focus a lot on match odds to think about my overall team talks, tactics etc. and like always I like reading the pre and post match analysis just to see what the pundits thought of my game.

So as usual since I am managing a club who have just been promoted, no matter which team I faced I was always heavy favourite to loose, and at no point was I even given a chance to winning a match in pre match analysis by any pundits.

So I decided to see what’s more important player or team reputation when it comes to calculating match odds etc.

I loaded up the editor and made a brand new team, gave them the lowest rep in the league, and decided to transfer some top players over into the squad. Not the best of the best but some players who can win the league easily.

I transferred over:

Given

Canavaro

Marquez

Ashely Cole

Gibs

Scholes

Guti

Wilshire

Wellbeck

Gudjohnsen

Bent

So I load up the game and again my team is odds on to get relegated and every match I am heavy favourite to loose, even when I am winning every game by 7-8 goals post match analysis is always “this has to be classed as major upset”

So I am thinking player rep has no impact on match odds, if that’s the case don’t you think this should be reviewed as I am sure if those players played in Blue Square South the team would be heavy favourite to win the league and every game.

What you think?

Abs

Your spot on but tbh, I don't think many people would care lol.

Why has the world forgotten how to spell lose ?

As for your point then yes if thats whats happening its pointless.

its the teams reputation which can increase depending on achievement

I am playing my new save and managing a club at the bottom of the league and now I focus a lot on match odds to think about my overall team talks, tactics etc. and like always I like reading the pre and post match analysis just to see what the pundits thought of my game.

So as usual since I am managing a club who have just been promoted, no matter which team I faced I was always heavy favourite to loose, and at no point was I even given a chance to winning a match in pre match analysis by any pundits.

So I decided to see what’s more important player or team reputation when it comes to calculating match odds etc.

I loaded up the editor and made a brand new team, gave them the lowest rep in the league, and decided to transfer some top players over into the squad. Not the best of the best but some players who can win the league easily.

I transferred over:

Given

Canavaro

Marquez

Ashely Cole

Gibs

Scholes

Guti

Wilshire

Wellbeck

Gudjohnsen

Bent

So I load up the game and again my team is odds on to get relegated and every match I am heavy favourite to loose, even when I am winning every game by 7-8 goals post match analysis is always “this has to be classed as major upset”

So I am thinking player rep has no impact on match odds, if that’s the case don’t you think this should be reviewed as I am sure if those players played in Blue Square South the team would be heavy favourite to win the league and every game.

What you think?

Abs

i did this a few versions back but didnt really see how the info would help other players so didnt bother posting.

~~Stevie G~~

I understand that many people may not find this important but I thought ill bring it up anyway.

When giving team talks, pre match, half time, and post match I normally take into consideration match odds. So if I am favourite to win then I would give a certain team talks, also if certain players are underperforming then they most likely will not get upset with harsh team talks.

But if a team is the favourite to lose then even if certain players are underperforming, giving harsh team talks will upset them and the team.

I think this is important but I'll throw a spanner in the works...

I'm in 2026 on my '09 save. It is World Cup year, England are reigning Euro Champions, have been ranked number one in the world for 2 and a half years and are hosting the tournament. If I was the bookie, I'd make them strong favourites. However, the odds for the tournament have been released and they are only 5th favourites. Go figure. Surely if the calculation was based purely on team rep then this wouldn't happen...?

To my knowledge, the match odds are calculated using the team reputation at the start of the season, so current form is not used in the calculation.

To my knowledge, the match odds are calculated using the team reputation at the start of the season, so current form is not used in the calculation.

If this is correct then surely it needs looking at? My England example is still an anomaly even if the system you suggest is correct.

I am sure that it has been acknowledged that this logic is flawed

To my knowledge, the match odds are calculated using the team reputation at the start of the season, so current form is not used in the calculation.

I've got the feeling (although it's nothing more than that, loosely based on my experiences throughout the numerous seasons) that it uses current team rep, rather than a static one from the start of the season. I think that the odds have changed over the course of the season to reflect my league ranking (which I'm assuming is basically improving my reputation). However I'm not sure, and I'm quite happy to be told I'm wrong!

It is possible, but I am fairly sure that when someone brought this up in the bugs forum some years ago, saying that they had edited their team to be brilliant and were still underdogs, they were told about the start of season being the calculation point. Not sure enough to fall on my sword if wrong though!

Hi - my 2 cents, based purely on memory and anecdotal experience:

FrazT I think you are right about previous editions, certainly the first game to include match odds (CM4?) used a static calculation which then did not change throughout the season.

I'm pretty sure, however, that the odds in FM09 (and presumably FM10) are dynamic, they do change based on current form (with weighting given to home or away form, whichever is more applicable) and team reputation relative to your opponent.

That is how I understand it to work, would be good to see some tests. If anyone can take a note of match odds 6 weeks in advance, try and string 4 or 5 wins together and see if the odds have changed, that should settle it.

Has anybody else found that if you use a second string team for one game then switch back to the first side the next you get shorter odds then you probably should have?

At the end of the day, bookies predictions only reflect what is most likely to happen. It's quite common for them to be wrong IRL, otherwise, why would anyone ever place a bet?

While the system in FM is not wholly accurate, it could be said that that is more realistic than having the game factor everything in, in real time and predicting a victor. Do any of us really want to be told before every match that our team is 99% sure of victory or defeat? You have to remember that IRL there aren't a bunch of black and white values attached to every team and player with which to draw an accurate outcome. It's all built on opinion and conjecture.

Maybe the current slightly flawed system is better??

Spud I agree with you, but, there is an inherent importance attached to the match odds, further than just a cosmetic feature.

As the OP states, match odds are really helpful in setting up your teamtalks and your tactics as the ME plays out differently based on how likely the AI or your own players perceive their chance of success. This is the same as real life, where a heavy underdog is more likely to play 4-5-1 counter etc etc.

So... this information is important to know. If, as I think it does, the game dynamically alters match odds based on recent form then there is nothing to worry about. If, however, others are right and the match odds are fixed on July 1st for the next 10 months, then this will cause problems for the human manager and the AI.

I don't think it basis it on recent form.

I ran away with the league in league 2 and I was still classed as being weaker than teams 10 points behind. Same thing happened in league 1, I was only ever favourites or the superior team when playing against the other recently promoted clubs. I finished the season in third place 2 points behind the champions.

I think Fraz T is right. Then again, it could be based on a more dynamic system it's just that, that system is not very quick in catching up with how the current season is going.