Sometimes it's just too predictable

Since FM2005, the match engine can be seriously predictable at times. I'm not one of those people that close the game when I lose or something, but sometimes it's just too obvious what will happen in the match once you see the early signs.

For example in my Everton game I was 1-0 up against Man City but their keeper was in superhero mode (please can fanboys not tell me it's my tactics! My tactics have worked well for the past 3 seasons). Then they had someone sent off. And I straight away knew that I was going to lose this game.

Second half, and they score one from a corner. I have another 10 shots on goal (I haven't changed my tactics by the way). 85th minute and they score again. The match finishes with them having 4 shots overall and me having 29. Please, I'm not a moaner, but this got me going a little bit...

Since FM2005, the match engine can be seriously predictable at times. I'm not one of those people that close the game when I lose or something, but sometimes it's just too obvious what will happen in the match once you see the early signs.

For example in my Everton game I was 1-0 up against Man City but their keeper was in superhero mode (please can fanboys not tell me it's my tactics! My tactics have worked well for the past 3 seasons). Then they had someone sent off. And I straight away knew that I was going to lose this game.

Second half, and they score one from a corner. I have another 10 shots on goal (I haven't changed my tactics by the way). 85th minute and they score again. The match finishes with them having 4 shots overall and me having 29. Please, I'm not a moaner, but this got me going a little bit...

Yeah I was at home btw.

I posted about FM06 being too predictable in the Match Engine.

I only watch my games on Key Highlights and I can instantly tell with each highlight who will have the final chance due to one team playing like Brazil and the other playing like my pub team.

Again I see this in FM08 where I know what will happen. When a Key highlight comes on the difference in the 2 teams are extraordinary but in the next Key highlight it will be reversed.

30 shots to their 4, they have had a man sent off, they are losing BANG they win the game.

Yup SI how can so many people be wrong who suffer from this?

Hi,

I feel your pain and have been there many times before. Once the cpu gets one of their players sent off, one of two things will happen. You will win, and score a few goals, or you wont be able to break them down and they will nick a goal.

Im afraid it really does come down to tactics in the end though. Other factors which will play a part are choosing the correct team talk. Generally, when the cpu gets a player sent off they will narrow their formation, or even change it, they will get lots of men behind the ball and close down often once you enter their half of the pitch. The best thing to do in my opinion would be to spread out, slow your tempo down and close down often, trying to keep them pinned in their half. If your defenders are quick, or their strikers are slow you can also push your defensive line up to the same level as your attacking mentality, ensuring that you keep them pinned in their half.

Finally, you will need a little bit of luck.

Hope this is of some help, as i experience the same thing, just remember you wont always win against 10 men, just remember to use the same tactics against them when you get a player sent off.

Thanks for the replies.

Matt, I can see what you're trying to say, but when in real life has a team with 11 men against 10 ever changed their tactics? Why would they be mad enough to do so? Look at United vs Chelsea in September (2-0). Chelsea got Mikel sent off but United kept on playing the way they did. Chelsea did not threaten at all, and were embarrassingly subdued.

Agree with the above poster, I always tend to change my tactics closer to the end of the match as I know the CPU team will go all guns blazing. I tend to go defensive and counter-attack if their down to 10 men. If I have slender lead, then I make sure my fullbacks do not bomb forward.

If you attempt to keep on attacking towards the end of a game, more than likely, you end up conceding a goal in this game.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

Thanks for the replies.

Matt, I can see what you're trying to say, but when in real life has a team with 11 men against 10 ever changed their tactics? Why would they be mad enough to do so? Look at United vs Chelsea in September (2-0). Chelsea got Mikel sent off but United kept on playing the way they did. Chelsea did not threaten at all, and were embarrassingly subdued. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Good point, but can i point you to the game Chelsea played against Everton at home in the carling cup not so long ago? Mikel got sent off, and Chelsea ended up nicking a goal through Shaun Wright Phillips in the final few minutes if i remember correctly.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">mattbuck </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Was agreeing with Mattbuck by the way.

Matt,

The Chelsea vs Everton game is slightly different though. Chelsea were at home so were bound to be more attacking.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

Matt,

The Chelsea vs Everton game is slightly different though. Chelsea were at home so were bound to be more attacking. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Granted, but they scored first, then Mikel got sent off, Everton scored but Chelsea nicked it at the end. Your point still stands i think, but im just saying sometimes you need to give a little and think, well i suppose it could happen. I am sure that if you had done some of the things i suggested then you may have got a different result.

Also you said they scored from a corner, not from open play so in a sense they were indeed lucky, as that was probably their only chance of scoring (from a set piece).

I always play the game watching key highlights only and I find that if I have possession when the highlight starts, I will never score unless the other team touches the ball. Even just a deflected pass or a slide tackle that runs loose.

If my players work the ball into the box and the opposition still havent touched it I know im not going to score.

Anyone else notice this?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by cudman:

I always play the game watching key highlights only and I find that if I have possession when the highlight starts, I will never score unless the other team touches the ball. Even just a deflected pass or a slide tackle that runs loose.

If my players work the ball into the box and the opposition still havent touched it I know im not going to score.

Anyone else notice this? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

No, although its interesting. Im just loading up my game now, so ill monitor the situation. Im sure i can remember scoring goals without the opposition touching the ball though.

It was sort of from a corner. They played it short and my CB Stendardo booted it out, but their keeper got it and launched it back in. Then they scored from that.

Before, I used to change my tactics slightly when this situation occurred. But those times I would still either lose or draw. Now on FM, rather than celebrating a red card for the opposition, I dread it because it means I won't win... lol...

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by cudman:

I always play the game watching key highlights only and I find that if I have possession when the highlight starts, I will never score unless the other team touches the ball. Even just a deflected pass or a slide tackle that runs loose.

If my players work the ball into the box and the opposition still havent touched it I know im not going to score.

Anyone else notice this? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Free kicks?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

It was sort of from a corner. They played it short and my CB Stendardo booted it out, but their keeper got it and launched it back in. Then they scored from that.

Before, I used to change my tactics slightly when this situation occurred. But those times I would still either lose or draw. Now on FM, rather than celebrating a red card for the opposition, I dread it because it means I won't win... lol... </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Maybe the best thing to do is to man mark the lone striker with one of you defenders and leave the other defender spare. Usually, when a player is sent of, the CPU will play 4-4-1. Could solve the problem

I can generally tell from the first 5 minutes of text commentary if it is going to be a fair game or if the superkeeper/another crappy bug will do me over royally. E.G. My player gets booked first tackle, my striker misses when it is easier to score, and the such.

Also referees hate my team apparently, one game saw 10 of my players (on mixed tackling btw) with bookings, and the other team (who conceded 24 fouls, one of which was a penalty for handball) had 2 yellows. Absurd.

Yeah, the Superkeeper thing really annoys me too. All you can really do is go all out attack from the beginning and hope for the best. Works sometimes.

Yeah Superkeeper kills me. It's amazing how quickly they can gather the ball when they've spilled it, even though the striker might have 20 for pace and acceleration and is closer to the ball than the keeper. When would that happen in real life?

Overall I think the game is OK, but I'm still getting a lot of disallowed goals, at least one per game, even with the patch.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by ian@work:

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by cudman:

I always play the game watching key highlights only and I find that if I have possession when the highlight starts, I will never score unless the other team touches the ball. Even just a deflected pass or a slide tackle that runs loose.

If my players work the ball into the box and the opposition still havent touched it I know im not going to score.

Anyone else notice this? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Free kicks? </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

I usually find that a free kick isnt the start of a highlight. So in the lead up to a free kick one of my players usually gets slide tackled or something.

Its hard to explain but it just always seems to turn out that way for me.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

Thanks for the replies.

Matt, I can see what you're trying to say, but when in real life has a team with 11 men against 10 ever changed their tactics? Why would they be mad enough to do so? Look at United vs Chelsea in September (2-0). Chelsea got Mikel sent off but United kept on playing the way they did. Chelsea did not threaten at all, and were embarrassingly subdued. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

So.

Team A gets a player sent off. They're now on ten men. Their manager would "be mad" not to change his tactics, wouldn't he? It's not like he just keeps playing the same as when he had 11, right?

So you're saying Team B's manager continues playing exactly the same? "No change needed, lads, just play!"

No! That's madness.

He's now - most likely - facing a bunkered defense. If he ran anything in the direct/quick attack line, its now running straight into the teeth of the opposition defense. He's much more likely to slow it down, have players holding up the ball and looking for support, spread the pitch .. and use his man advantage by passing the ball, forcing the side with ten to run their ***es of trying to keep up with the ball.

I'm not saying he changes formation - but he'll definitely change his tactical approach.

And, lo and behold, the same thing happens in FM.

Those are my usual tactics anyway. A 4-4-2, slow, non counter attacking, short passing game. And it's very wide. So I'm doing the stuff that you've recommended I do. Now what to you say?

There's no need to be condescending about something so trivial, Amaroq.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

There's no need to be condescending about something so trivial, Amaroq. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Respectful disagreement here...I've never read a single post by Amaroq and found it to be condescending. On the contrary, he's one of the experienced posters who spends a bit of time helping out the newbs learn the game effectively.

I thought his emboldening and italicising made his post seem condescending.

Thanks, copperhorse.

I can see a reading of it that post where it could come across as condescending; Azeri please accept that that is not how I intended it.

If that's how you'd describe your tactic, I'm not sure what more advice I could give you; the Tactics and Training Tips forum is probably a better place for tactical debugging.

Personally, if I felt my tactic was predictably beaten by a ten-man side , I'd be watching the replays on Extended or even Full to figure out where things were going wrong. Conceding from a corner you might not be able to do much about, but I'd definitely be working on figuring out how to convert more than 3% of my chances .. and how to prevent the second goal (assuming it was from the run of play).

The second goal in fact I'll take the blame for, because it was in the last minute and I was getting a little annoyed so I put everyone up front, but that's life.

I didn't bother changing my tactics too much you know, because I thought that if they have served me so well for three seasons, it should fare well now as well (obviously not).

By the way, sorry I interpreted your comment as being condescending and it's cool that you realised why it might have been understood as so, so thanks.

I'm getting Mudangayi in January so hopefully my defense can be shored up with the protection in front of them!

I can't really do much about the 3% of the chances going in, because I was certainly watching the replays diligently and yet their keeper geniunely was saving eveything that came his way, no matter which way it took! My players were having their shots saved both from point-blank range and from long range.

It was just one of those games where I think the tactics didn't matter, cause I'm convinced that the game sometimes does have matches where it doesn't really matter how you go around playing the match because you are destined to lose it.

Azeri - my apologies to you, as well; I didn't meant to get all snarky on you. I must say, well done for keeping your reply so civil: that really gave me space to step back and reflect on how I'd come across, rather than starting a flame-war.

Did you spot Paul C's reply in High creative freedom = long shots, back passes, and nothing else?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by PaulC:

I think high creative freedom does result in too many long or hasty shots, and I am reworking its impact slightly for the 8.0.2 update.

Cheers,

Paul </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Emphasis mine, added.

This comment made me wonder if a lot of the players who are experiencing the sorts of "1 goal from 29 shots" matches you have are doing so because of high Creativity - which we would naturally expect to have be an efficient instruction when given to a world-class team in a match we expect to spend attacking.

I had a lot of success with high Creativity tactics in FM'05-FM'07 - it was one of the things that distinguished my "Premiership/Serie A" tactic from my lower-leagues tactics.

I haven't been seeing the problem in FM'08 .. but I haven't made it high enough up the league ladder that I've tried an exceptionally creative tactical approach yet.

Thanks for your comments, Amaroq.

Actually, that thread caught my eye last night and I was skimming over it before something distracted me and I forgot about it - I'll read it now though.

But it's an interesting point. My overall team "creative freedom" is set to the first notch which is called "little", and the only person that has "much" is my AMC (who in this match was Luis Jimenez) - in this role he does pretty well, I usually use him and Bresciano there. This means that really I shouldn't be a "victim" of this goals to shots ratio problem. Although maybe, and just maybe... the lack of creative freedom my team has might be the problem? A few other players have more creative freedom than I have given to the team as a whole (my AML and SS, in this case being Farfan and Gyan respectively), but its not to the "much" notch.

I don't usually have this goals to ratio problem, probably like 1 match in every 5 or 6... which might sound quite common, but it does't really bother me that much. It just bothered me this time because of the circumstances in which I was in (the red card).

(Expanding on the thought

A lot of my tactical advice to folks experiencing that problem - and its echoed in T&TT if you head there - is aimed at reducing the number of "rushed" half-chances.

My theory is basically this:

The "superkeeper" phenomenon is induced by a combination of the 'keeper making some early saves, which increases his confidence, and puts him in a "playing a blinder" mode .. and the strikers losing confidence as a result of their misses.

If that theory is true, you're better off having ten high-percentage shots than 30 low-percentage shots.

IRL, against a shaky 'keeper, those 30 low-percentage shots should generate enough rebounds and pressure to cause the 'keeper to crumble .. but if, in FM, we wind up with players rushing their shots, e.g., missing open nets and putting the shots close enough to the 'keeper to save .. then the ten high-percentage shots represent a much better chance of scoring.

The two ways I can see to reduce low-percentage shots are

a.) cutting down long shots, and

b.) cutting down hasty/rushed shots by encouraging patience and passing.

Hmm.

(Responding to your reply)

That sounds like it negates the "High Creativity as culprit" theory, at least in your case..

I tend to link high Creativity with lots of Through Balls, and I like giving it to my AMC/playmaker, definitely.

In past versions, I would also give a higher-than-normal Creativity to my most Creative/Decisions/Passing/Team Work strikers and wingers, but would keep it low for my less-than-superstar players.

I don't think I can advise you further, on FM'08; I just don't have sufficient experience to take you further than you've already taken yourself.

Those are the tactics I play - the only player that has "long shots" set to often is my AMC and that's only even if I'm playing Riquelme or Bresciano there. If I'm playing Jimenez then I have it set to low, like everyone else in my team bar Farfan who has it set to much. I think the mix is vital as getting it correct wins you games really.

Therefore I shouldn't theoretically have the superkeeper problem because my game is a slow one too - only two notches above the slowest setting and the passing metre is set to the same setting.

Your theory is a good one by the way. It's just that I think that with my short range shots, my striker (Kiessling in this game) who has finishing 17 and composure 15 should be finishing them off anyway... The superkeeper, I believe, just has to stick his oar in every now and then even when it's not your tactics because my tactics don't encourage long range, rushed shots.

I took so long writing my previous post that I missed your one at 22:11!

Yeah I agree with you - definitely I have my player with the most creativity as my best passer who has his setting of playing through balls set to "much" (two players have thorugh balls set to much in my team and thats my AMC and SS).

Something I noticed since FM06, I seem to have a problem trying to win when I am top of the league. It just seems whatever I do, I can't score and the opposition almost always nicks a goal against the run of play.

Yet when I am not top and chasing, it is much easier to win and the players bang in goals left, right and center.

Is it the pressure of expectation? When you dominate possession, create 15-20 chances a game and your top goalscorers, who have been free scoring all season all of a sudden can't hit a cows arse with a banjo then it is questionable.

Also, I'm absolutely convinced at certain times that the AI stops you pulling away at the top by more than 3-4 points in the second half of the season. It seems the negative results of the chasing pack more or less determines what you do i.e. if second place loses then you will not win if you are already clear of them by more than a point.

The only time I have experienced being able to pull away at the top and win the league early is the season after I win a Championship for the first time. For example, when manager of Genk in the first season I experienced what I said, couldn't pull clear of Mouscron at all. After I won the league though, the next season I had the title won by mid-March with the same side as the previous season.

I usually find that the million shots/no goals games come in batches during a season. Therefore it could be a low morale/bad form problem. I might be completely wrong but i think that a more pronounced decrease in finishing ability compared to other parts of the game might be programmed to reflect this lack of form, resulting in loads of shots/no goals. Now obviously if a team was going through a bad patch. they would very likely be suffering from a lack of confidence infront of goal but so would all aspects of their game.

Tubzinho,

Sometimes when I'm playing a game and before it I was on top of the table, I'll keep switching to the latest scores tab to see how the team placed second are doing. If I'm winning say 2-0 or whatever, they might be drawing 0-0. But then once my game finishes... more often than not, they have scored a goal in the last minute - that's all too common for me so I can see where you're coming from with your problem.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

I took so long writing my previous post that I missed your one at 22:11!

Yeah I agree with you - definitely I have my player with the most creativity as my best passer who has his setting of playing through balls set to "much" (two players have thorugh balls set to much in my team and thats my AMC and SS). </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

(Dumb American moment: what's SS?)

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by Tubzinho:

Something I noticed since FM06, I seem to have a problem trying to win when I am top of the league. It just seems whatever I do, I can't score and the opposition almost always nicks a goal against the run of play.

Yet when I am not top and chasing, it is much easier to win and the players bang in goals left, right and center.

Is it the pressure of expectation? When you dominate possession, create 15-20 chances a game and your top goalscorers, who have been free scoring all season all of a sudden can't hit a cows arse with a banjo then it is questionable.

Also, I'm absolutely convinced at certain times that the AI stops you pulling away at the top by more than 3-4 points in the second half of the season. It seems the negative results of the chasing pack more or less determines what you do i.e. if second place loses then you will not win if you are already clear of them by more than a point.

The only time I have experienced being able to pull away at the top and win the league early is the season after I win a Championship for the first time. For example, when manager of Genk in the first season I experienced what I said, couldn't pull clear of Mouscron at all. After I won the league though, the next season I had the title won by mid-March with the same side as the previous season. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

There's definitely a "pressure of expectation" motif - that's been built in for quite a while. I think you're more likely to avoid it with a team full of experienced, professional veterans, especially ones who "have been there before"; that might explain your second season phenomenon: having won it all the previous year, there's more confidence. The pressure is on the chasing pack, not the defending champs, as it were.

It's your tactics.

Sorry Amaroq - SS is apparently "second striker" or "support striker" and it's the role that Rooney rather than Saha would play, if you get the drift. For example while the ST (Saha) would sit right in front of the defenders, using his strength and prowess in the air, the SS drops deeper and is more creative, getting involved in the action and passing the ball around.

I've just experienced what I said earlier right now. Am starting a new career game with Bury and after 6-7 games, have found myself top by a point. Now I thought to myself before hand, I will lose the next game reagrdless, which was a home tie against MK Dons.

And what do you know? Despite dominating possession, having 15-17 shots at goal, reducing MK DOns to very little, MK DOns nick it 1-0 in the 88th minute. And after that I am third. Next tie, away to Morecambe. I won 2-1. Am now sitting second.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by azeri4life:

Sorry Amaroq - SS is apparently "second striker" or "support striker" and it's the role that Rooney rather than Saha would play, if you get the drift. For example while the ST (Saha) would sit right in front of the defenders, using his strength and prowess in the air, the SS drops deeper and is more creative, getting involved in the action and passing the ball around. </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Ah, okay. Thanks!

Tubzinho, have you considered adjusting your team talks to reduce the pressure on the team, when you're in that position? (I'm not saying I've had success with that - team-talks still frustrate me! - but it seems like something worth trying)

Ignoring the specifics of the example I totally agree that sometimes you just know what's going to happen. Here are the typical signs:

1)Total dominant spell without scoring, AI scores first attack after

2) Disallowed goal then AI score (particularly towards the end of the match)

3)Red card for the opposition as per example by OP

Obviously this doesn't happen all the time but some matches you do just know you're screwed

Guarentee that when you go one down you get dicked big time no matter what you do....

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by skintsaint:

Guarentee that when you go one down you get dicked big time no matter what you do.... </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, I've never earned a point after going a mad down, even after I change my tactics. That annoys me!

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-title">quote:</div><div class="ip-ubbcode-quote-content">Originally posted by deadeyedunc: 2) Disallowed goal then AI score (particularly towards the end of the match) </div></BLOCKQUOTE>

2) Disallowed goal then AI score (particularly towards the end of the match)

I get that a lot - in a big match I always get a disallowed goal, then later the opposition will score and I'm a dead duck.

Amaroq - Team talks are something I did look at and I have tried with different quotes but it seems you have to get the right one other wise its curtains.

As a result, I have started using the Assistant to give the team talks and then change where I think necessary, like when he says we have been disspointing I usually change it to a positive (encouragement or we can win).

I do share your point though that team talks take too much emphasis and the lack of real preparation for games is something I still don't think has been adressed as this is the key to winning games and the team talks, not the actual talk.

I'm with you there: team talks still feel like a "Guess the right answer" mechanic to me. I was lying in bed last night not quite falling asleep and thinking of a different mechanic; maybe I'll post it when I get some time.

yeh i not fussed about this topic but the title has something to do with wat im thinking. i cba starting a new topic. but in my first game with norwich arsenal win the league and man u come like 5th. then that game got some crashdumps error so i started a new game with derby and once again arsenal win the league. i start a new game with blackburn and yes once again arsenal win with no challange atol from man u chelsea or liverpool its bull arsenal r no way as gd as this and manu r so much better!

btw if u didnt catch on im a man u fan

tbh, its the actual start of the highlight that makes it too predictable for me. When you're watching extended or key, it starts off anywhere on the pitch, within 3 seconds, you know what team will have the chance, and what kind of chance it'll be, but tbf its not as bad as previous games, some improvement has been made.