Player Fitness Curve (Discussion)

Hallo all,

This thread is hoping to provoke some discussion on the issue of players' fitness curve. I seem to notice that a player's fitness curve already exists in the game, but I believe that we get inadequate feedback on this: just Condition and Match Fitness. While these ratings are helpful to some extent, I was hoping to get further feedback on my players' fitness curve: my training facilities are top, so I guess that means that I should be able to know EXACTLY where my players' fitness is at, by using the related equipment to test them.

What is a player fitness curve?

In real life, and apparently in FM too, a player's general fitness (seasonal fitness) follows a (seasonal) curve that describes:

- How fit the player is at any particular instance in the season.

- Whether he is past his fitness peak (for the season) or has not reached it yet.

- How long he can stay at his peak.

You can notice this in the game too: you have two players (X and Y) who have played 20 and 6 games respectively this far in the season, and assume they have similar Natural Fitness attributes. Let's say they are both match fit, they are both at 85% Condition, and you don't play them at all for 10 days. Player X may reach 100% Condition in this space of time, while Player Y may reach e.g. 96%. This means that X is at or near his fitness peak, which allows him to reach maximum condition when given enough rest. It also allows him to make best use of training: no red arrows for no apparent reason (assuming a balanced training schedule). On the other hand, Player Y is probably way before his fitness peak: no matter how much rest he has, he never reaches 100% condition, because he needs to play more matches.

A few months later, X has played 35 games and Y has played 20. You rest them, as before, for 10 days. X reaches Condition 96% while Y reaches 100%. X is beyond his fitness peak for the season. Y is near it or at it.

How is this fitness curve helpful?

- Good use of the fitness curve can help your players avoid injuries. I notice that condition and match fitness are not enough alone, where a player stands on his fitness curve also plays a role. If your winger is match fit and starts with 97% Condition, he has a smaller probability to get injured if he is near his fitness peak.

- Condition drop during matches. All other parameters equal, players near their fitness peak seem to lose Condition slower during the match.

- Important matches preparation. Right now, I have a very crucial european competition match coming up in two weeks. In the league, I am about to play lesser opponents. Injury risks aside, I would like to have my key players as fit as possible for the european match. If they are before their peak, I should play them some more and get them closer to it. If they are beyond it, maybe I should rest them until then, so that they get closer to it. If they are at it, maybe I should play them once before the important match, to maintain their fitness. I really need to know exactly where they stand.

- Good use of training. I am unsure how the game handles training with respect to fitness, because... I cannot see the exact fitness curve! However, I seem to notice that players beyond their fitness peak may not train too well (red monthly arrows in training screen), so I guess fitness plays a role. How much role does it play? How to get most of training with respect to fitness? I do not know, because I don't see the fitness curve. Also, how does training alone (without matches) affect fitness? Again, I do not know.

- Preseason training. How does preseason training affect fitness throughout the season? I seem to notice that if I don't play too many preseason friendlies, my players reach their peak later and it makes sense. On the other hand, if I play many friendlies, my players are better at the start of the season, but tired towards the end. Different managers have different needs: I may want to focus effort to have my players at their peak at the beginning, in the middle or at the end of the season. How? Right now, I can only try to shoot in the dark. Does the preseason have a lasting effect on fitness throughout the season? Right now, I can not tell. If I knew the curve for each player, I would be able to make informed guesses on all these matters.

- Preseason II: Coming back after a summer full of international call ups. Your player has come back for preseason after playing in the Euro Cup during the summer. Does he need additional rest or not? Probably, but how much? How will this affect him throughout the season? Right now, we cannot tell. We need the curve.

So, the game gives us some data on fitness (Condition and Match fitness), so what more do I need?

For reasons stated above, I need the fitness curve for each player. This can be an illustration like the one for attributes development or can be a single "General Fitness Stage" bar: e.g. this bar can be black in the middle and white at the ends. Shades of blue, getting darker and darker towards the middle, will fill up the space in between. The middle of the black region is going to be the fitness peak. The width of the black region is going to be different for every player, depending on Natural Fitness and possibly Age. An arrow will be showing us where the player is exactly at. The player starts at the left end right after an empty summer (in need of matches and training), and then gradually moves towards the right. The right end depicts complete jadedness.

I read that big clubs, even here in Greece, have equipment and tests that check the players' fitness and this allows them to be aware of how the players fitness is going. Why can't we have this too? I hope to have proven to you that this can also be very helpful for gaming purposes. Have I persuaded you?

What do you think? Any other ideas or suggestions are more than welcome.

External links:

Here are two links that talk about the athlete fitness curve and how to interact with it through training:

http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/2008/11/rocky-vi-fitness-v-fatigue.html

http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cache:FoICTy-yVOIJ:www.badmintonsa.org/documents/coaches/train_structure.doc+fatigue+form+%22fitness%22+%22early+season%22+sport&hl=el&ct=clnk&cd=15&gl=gr&client=firefox-a

The first link is breathtakingly interesting. In short, performance is dependent on the interplay between fitness and fatigue, as explained in the first link. Training increases both fitness and fatigue, but each peaks at a different time. Correctly scheduled, a manager can combine a good fitness with the best (fitness-fatigue) difference when he wants it.

In the second link, seasonal training is divided in three periods, the preseasonal phase (building a solid physical foundation for the season ahead), sport specific phase (maintaining physical and preparing skill attributes) and transition phase (end of season).

This is definatley an aspect of the game that I would welcome. Would bring added importance to the "rest for match/week/two weeks" option, and would also put more importance to the creation of individualized training to get the best out of the players you got, instead of buying players in abundance whenever a first temaer experiences a dip in form.

This is a fascinating insight into player fitness. If the tools are available in real life to check players fitness progress and level during the season, then a more detailed interpretation of the way it works in FM can be only a good thing surely.

Superb analysis and suggestions as always Lyssien.

One aspect of this which would be very helpful: I tend to have a big first team squad, so some players may not play or get a brief substitute appearance over a few weeks. Currently I cannot know in advance if that player is going to be 'lacking match fitness' or 'severely lacking match fitness' before I select my squad. I'd like my physio staff to be able to inform me who is beginning to lose match fitness so that I can give them a run-out.

That was a really well thought out post Lyssien!

It would indeed be useful to have a player's fitness curve, as you put it, mapped out for quick reference. That way, you can plan your squad rotations more efficiently for the entire season.

However, I wonder what kind of tests and equipment that you have mentioned do these clubs utilise? What kind of accuracy can they attain with regards to a player's fitness curve?

Personally, I have always imagined that clubs conduct fitness tests just to determine the current physical conditions of their players, rather than as a prediction of their fitness levels for the next weeks/months to come (e.g. Player X has 360 more mins to spare before he 'burns out' for the season). If clubs do indeed have the means to plot out a projected analysis of a player's physical conditioning, FM should definitely include a representation of it within the game.

Thanks for your replies Yes, I thought about this a lot, because I really need to know this curve to know how to rotate my players best and design the preseason! It's nice to see that you would find it helpful too, it means there is hope.

Would bring added importance to the "rest for match/week/two weeks" option, and would also put more importance to the creation of individualized training to get the best out of the players you got

Exactly!

If the tools are available in real life to check players fitness progress and level during the season, then a more detailed interpretation of the way it works in FM can be only a good thing surely.

See below about the tools...

Currently I cannot know in advance if that player is going to be 'lacking match fitness' or 'severely lacking match fitness' before I select my squad. I'd like my physio staff to be able to inform me who is beginning to lose match fitness so that I can give them a run-out.

I find it peculiar that that physios don't already give any such advice. They only tell me the obvious ("he is injured") or that they have no concern or that the player is very professional and they don't worry about him. While this is maybe all I can ask from a physio, fitness coaches should be able to give further information on the player's fitness. That's their job anyway.

However, I wonder what kind of tests and equipment that you have mentioned do these clubs utilise? What kind of accuracy can they attain with regards to a player's fitness curve?

Personally, I have always imagined that clubs conduct fitness tests just to determine the current physical conditions of their players, rather than as a prediction of their fitness levels for the next weeks/months to come (e.g. Player X has 360 more mins to spare before he 'burns out' for the season). If clubs do indeed have the means to plot out a projected analysis of a player's physical conditioning, FM should definitely include a representation of it within the game.

As far as I understand things (I quit being a serious athlete in a young age, so I have no first hand experience) from reading the sport news reports, big clubs (like Panathinaikos, Olympiacos etc) put their players through such tests a few times a year, not every day. The tests I am aware of are of the kind "you run for a while at medium pace and they have cables on you, in order to measure your heart beating rate. Then you run briefly at top speed etc". There are probably more tests, but I don't know them. This helps them make a prediction too, and that's how big clubs design their preseason scheduling. Unfortunately, that's about all I know, this is in fact a very well defined scientific area and I am no specialist in this. Big clubs do have such specialists (those are the good fitness coaches!) and that's what matters!

How accurate are the predictions? I guess SI can talk to a fitness coach specialist. Probably Arsenal will let them talk to one if they like

My guess is that those predictions cannot be absolutely accurate, they are probably as accurate as judging the potential ability of a 23yo player (remember that they are only making seasonal predictions).

The undeniable fact is this: In real life, big clubs have methods to try to predict. That's how they design their preseason. The FM gamer (myself included) has no clue. I have played through 3 whole seasons in my game, and I still don't know anything about fitness managing that I didn't know before I bought the game. I don't even know if the game handles fitness in a near-realistic fashion, because I am not given any good feedback on this. This, I say, must change.

The test will probably be a VO2max test. This tests the maximum amount of oxygen your body can take in and use in a set amount of time l/min or ml/kg/min (kg being body mass). Basically this just suggests the harder someone can work, without building up lactic acid and therefore needing to stop for a panting session.

The tests involve exercising at increasing intensities, holding each stage for 2-4 mins, untill you can't do any more stages, then analysing the gasses exhaled in the final period of each level.

I very very much doubt that any club would have an idea of where on any sort of curve the player would be, however, this does not mean your point does not have credit in respect to the game. We should be able to see match practice, and fitness level, the two that combine to make the condition% we see. Then we would know the best responce to a low condition player, either play them more or rest them.

Very interesting post, Lyssien.

I think there are hidden variables like jadedness and match readiness, aren't there? Have you tried looking at how these develop over a season, using third-party tools, as some sort of research?

I like the idea of a fitness curve, but maybe it would give us too much information, compared to real life. I think physios should give a lot more feedback on player condition, though, than their current reports which tend to say 'X doesn't have any injury at the moment' or something along those lines.

The test will probably be a VO2max test. This tests the maximum amount of oxygen your body can take in and use in a set amount of time l/min or ml/kg/min (kg being body mass). Basically this just suggests the harder someone can work, without building up lactic acid and therefore needing to stop for a panting session.

The tests involve exercising at increasing intensities, holding each stage for 2-4 mins, untill you can't do any more stages, then analysing the gasses exhaled in the final period of each level.

I very very much doubt that any club would have an idea of where on any sort of curve the player would be, however, this does not mean your point does not have credit in respect to the game. We should be able to see match practice, and fitness level, the two that combine to make the condition% we see. Then we would know the best responce to a low condition player, either play them more or rest them.

Ham, this is very cool and useful information! So, in terms of FM, it would be like knowing a "general fitness index" for the player? This is already more than we get to know in the game (condition, match fitness and natural fitness), isn't it? You seem to agree with me on this, in your last paragraph.

I may have to disagree on your scepticism on the fitness curve knowledge, though (although you are much more informed than me, apparently!). I watch teams that are fit and I watch teams that are less fit. At the end of every season, it is quite obvious to me that some clubs did a better job in the preseason than others. How did they manage that? Was it only more rotation? It doesn't seem like it (to me). Also, different clubs have different types of preseason training. Why is that? Can it be only a difference in style? My guess would be that each is trying to achieve something specific (fitness-wise), wouldn't you agree? How would they be able to do this without any knowledge of a fitness curve?

I also know that many managers target specific periods of the season fitness-wise. I don't know what is going on in England, but here in Greece managers Fernando Santos, Angelos Anastasiadis and Panathinaikos' semi-god basketball manager Zelimir Obradovic are well-known to do this. So at least we know that they do have a general fitness plan for their teams.

Now, if we agree that they DO have a general fitness plan, and therefore they DO have some knowledge/experience of a general fitness curve that applies to athletes, wouldn't it be sensible to imagine that they can guess where each player is at, fitness-wise? If you agree (and I think you do), I think it's quite realistic that we are given this info in the game. It's MORE realistic than not having it!

Thanks a lot for your reply, it was really interesting

Very interesting post, Lyssien.

I think there are hidden variables like jadedness and match readiness, aren't there? Have you tried looking at how these develop over a season, using third-party tools, as some sort of research?

I like the idea of a fitness curve, but maybe it would give us too much information, compared to real life. I think physios should give a lot more feedback on player condition, though, than their current reports which tend to say 'X doesn't have any injury at the moment' or something along those lines.

RT, I just saw your post.

No, I haven't run such experiments. I am not sure such an experiment can be run without PhD-like effort, tbh.

For your disagreement, please read my answer to Ham (that I was writing while you were posting...).

excellent post and i've been thinking about this for a while too. linked of course with the training module needing a revamp.

I was always aware of this, but I didn't have a name for it.

I've noticed that by giving all the players in the squad a balanced amount of games, I get better fitness levels and better training performances.

In fact, I now have my squad display at "Fitness", whereas before I kept it at "Selection" to see who is playing enough and who is not.

Initial post has been enriched with external links that provide information on how the fitness curve of an athlete works and a simple way to handle it.

So, now I am sure I have a strong case. We need more tools to interact with our players' fitness and fatigue and to schedule their peak.

Excellent post. The concepts behind it help to explain attribute loss after minor injuries mid-season.

Ham, this is very cool and useful information! So, in terms of FM, it would be like knowing a "general fitness index" for the player? This is already more than we get to know in the game (condition, match fitness and natural fitness), isn't it? You seem to agree with me on this, in your last paragraph.

Glad you found it interesting, and yes I agree that the current system is not adequate.

I may have to disagree on your scepticism on the fitness curve knowledge, though (although you are much more informed than me, apparently!). I watch teams that are fit and I watch teams that are less fit. At the end of every season, it is quite obvious to me that some clubs did a better job in the preseason than others. How did they manage that? Was it only more rotation? It doesn't seem like it (to me). Also, different clubs have different types of preseason training. Why is that? Can it be only a difference in style? My guess would be that each is trying to achieve something specific (fitness-wise), wouldn't you agree? How would they be able to do this without any knowledge of a fitness curve?

They would have some idea, however their methods of testing would be similar to yours. They would see how their players are behaving in training (performance variables such as a time to run a certain distance might be more in depth than you have but a similar effect).

I also know that many managers target specific periods of the season fitness-wise. I don't know what is going on in England, but here in Greece managers Fernando Santos, Angelos Anastasiadis and Panathinaikos' semi-god basketball manager Zelimir Obradovic are well-known to do this. So at least we know that they do have a general fitness plan for their teams.

Correct, all professional athletes will aim to peak for a certain competition or event, for track and field athletes this will be once every 4 years for the Olympics, with several minor peaks each year for qualifiers and world championships. However footballers are slightly different, their competition calendar is packed for at least half of the year, so they simply cannot train for one specific time where they want peak fitness. Instead they are likely to aim to maintain the fitness achieved in preseason, because in order to increase fitness, you need to train hard, and hard physical training when competing twice in one week is going to lead to fatigue rather than improved fitness. In fact the footballing term "match-fitness" is probably a very good term to use (as much as commentators hate it), as match-time is probably the mainstay of players high intensity training in congested weeks.

Now, if we agree that they DO have a general fitness plan, and therefore they DO have some knowledge/experience of a general fitness curve that applies to athletes, wouldn't it be sensible to imagine that they can guess where each player is at, fitness-wise? If you agree (and I think you do), I think it's quite realistic that we are given this info in the game. It's MORE realistic than not having it!

Thanks a lot for your reply, it was really interesting

They can guess, so I agree, but this would probably be: "X looked very tired in training, perhaps it is best we give him a lighter training load for X weeks" rather than "X is here on the fitness curve...blah blah blah". The sports scientists wouldn't bother giving the managers the science bit, just reccomendations as to what to do.

Also, I am not a massive fan of that 1st link. It is useful, but do not read too much into it. Triathletes are a completely different kettle of fish compared to footballers, they are purely concerned with running, swimming and cycling set distances in as fast a time as possible. Footballers need to be able to

a) last 90mins

b) beat their man for acceleration and top speed

c) keep this top speed up for as long as poss

d) jump higher and kick harder

e) hold off their man

f) be agile to wiggle their way past block-headed CBs

g) avoid fatigue and injury

h) master their technique and tactics

there was a pyramidal diagram I saw recently showing coaches at the top. Immeadiately they all got their heads high saying they're the most important. However the explanation of the diagram showed how the coach should only be involved in the tactics aspect (along with psychologists) and technique (with biomechanists). The other aspects should be covered by physiotherapists, sports scientists, biomechanists and nutritionists. At smaller clubs this obviously isn't possible, so ideally the coach would have a knowledge of all areas, but at the elite level, this simply isn't possible.

As for whether I have any better links or docs, I will keep my eyes open, but in the time being I'll try and answer any questions myself.

Fraser,

Excellent post. The concepts behind it help to explain attribute loss after minor injuries mid-season.

Yes, it would be indeed helpful for injuries too. At present, injuries are handled kind of automatically, without requiring that the user does anything. A more sophisticated fitness module would allow more interaction with these situations.

Ham,

They would have some idea, however their methods of testing would be similar to yours.

The problem currently is that, after playing 5 seasons in FM09, I still don't know anything more about how to handle fitness better. Agreed, we need more feedback.

However footballers are slightly different, their competition calendar is packed for at least half of the year, so they simply cannot train for one specific time where they want peak fitness. Instead they are likely to aim to maintain the fitness achieved in preseason, because in order to increase fitness, you need to train hard, and hard physical training when competing twice in one week is going to lead to fatigue rather than improved fitness.

Yet, there must be ways to target specific seasonal periods. Like the start of the season, if your #1 aim is to do well in the group stage of CL with a mediocre team or the end of the season, if your #1 wish is to do well in the final stages of the competitions.

Right now, our only weapon is rotation and number of preseason friendlies. I don't think that any FM gamer tweaks his preseason training with a seasonal plan on his mind. As a matter of fact, most gamers (me included) feel they don't have to make a preseason training at all. And even if they think they have to use preseason training, they are in the dark as to how to proceed. This must change, imo. How? More feedback by the game.

They can guess, so I agree, but this would probably be: "X looked very tired in training, perhaps it is best we give him a lighter training load for X weeks" rather than "X is here on the fitness curve...blah blah blah". The sports scientists wouldn't bother giving the managers the science bit, just reccomendations as to what to do.

If that's the case, I find it absolutely strange! Surely, if I were a manager, I 'd try to work on players' fitness in a focused and scientific way, as fitness is one of the most important factors of footballing success. So, if that's still not the case (I am not convinced, mainly because I find it too important to leave it on luck, especially when talking about footballers who are worth millions), I am pretty confident that the future lies in specialized labs that test and handle the players' fitness. It's the natural step forward.

Also, I am not a massive fan of that 1st link. It is useful, but do not read too much into it. Triathletes are a completely different kettle of fish compared to footballers, they are purely concerned with running, swimming and cycling set distances in as fast a time as possible. Footballers need to be able to

a) last 90mins

b) beat their man for acceleration and top speed

c) keep this top speed up for as long as poss

d) jump higher and kick harder

e) hold off their man

f) be agile to wiggle their way past block-headed CBs

g) avoid fatigue and injury

h) master their technique and tactics

there was a pyramidal diagram I saw recently showing coaches at the top. Immeadiately they all got their heads high saying they're the most important. However the explanation of the diagram showed how the coach should only be involved in the tactics aspect (along with psychologists) and technique (with biomechanists). The other aspects should be covered by physiotherapists, sports scientists, biomechanists and nutritionists. At smaller clubs this obviously isn't possible, so ideally the coach would have a knowledge of all areas, but at the elite level, this simply isn't possible.

As for whether I have any better links or docs, I will keep my eyes open, but in the time being I'll try and answer any questions myself.

Well, the (fitness-fatigue) difference that the 1st link talks about is extremely interesting, imo, and I am sure it applies to footballers too. Sure, it may need to be handled in a different way to deal with a football season.

Yes, footballers need to do all this stuff you are mentioning. But like I mentioned above, I need a way to target specific seasonal periods. My players cannot be at 100% all the time, so there must be a way to "sacrifice" a period of the season in order to be at 100% at another period.

Indeed, top managers have fitness specialists in their coaching team. I read somewhere that Wenger has a coaching/specialist team of around 40 people (hopefully I remember this correctly), and needs to take them with him if he is to ever leave Arsenal for another club. I am pretty sure he collaborates closely with them, stating what he expects and getting feedback of how things are going.

Since you are also interested (and informed) on this issue, it would be interesting to hear your opinion of how you would design some better feedback in the game! I described my idea of a "fitness bar" in the OP. After reading the first link, I now find that idea inadequate, and believe we need two bars, one for fitness and one for fatigue. This will help us utilize fitness plans and also become wiser as to how these things work within the game. You obviously feel this is too much. How would you design it, do you have a concrete idea?

believe we need two bars, one for fitness and one for fatigue. This will help us utilize fitness plans and also become wiser as to how these things work within the game

FM Scout Genie already has multiple displays for multiple aspects of fitness. I can only assume the game actually deals with those aspects. If so then the answer for the next iteration of FM would be to simply display all available data in a more easilly understood context.

There is a question though regarding giving the game away too easilly pre-match and allowing the manager to ignore data presented to him through the match engine. A lot of this game revolves around actual observation in comparison to being presented with the data upfront. Having said that I do agree that fitness is somewhat vague in its presentation, and physio reports are near useless.

I think a development of physio feedback alongside the feedback from Assistant Manager and other coaching staff would go a long way to help in understanding the current mechanics before they are developed further in subsequent iterations.